財富管理及基金模擬動態調整績效之研究

Abstract

本文主要以投資者商品需求導向的角度出發，協助投資者規劃財富目標之投 資組合資產配置，財富管理中基金為主要投資資產經由定期定額的方式長期投入 以降低成本追求複利來創造財富，然而，投資者應該定期或非定期檢視投資標的 之表現比較期初之規劃進行調整使投資組合的報酬率維持穩定。由於未來基金走 勢並不一定相同，故所適用的投資策略並不一定相同，本研究經由多層篩選後模 擬了5檔位於效率前緣上的基金之未來基金淨值，發現當基金走勢不同時，所適 用的投資方式也不一致。當基金走勢明顯往上時，單筆投資為一最佳投資策略； 當基金走勢介於微幅上揚與微幅下跌時，基金透過動態調整後的投資組合可以創 造高於定期定額的期末終值；最後，當基金走勢為明顯下跌時，經由動態調整可 以將基金的損失降至最低，由此可知，基金最適投資方式與動態調整的基準與該 檔基金之移動平均報酬率成長率有所關聯。

This article mainly takes investor commodity demand guidance's angle embarking, assisting investors to plan their investment portfolio and meet their goals. In the wealth management, investors can use dollar-average cost investment strategy in mutual funds to reduce the cost and create wealth; however, the investors should regularly or non-regularly inspect and adjust the performance of the portfolio because future funds trends are not necessarily the same. This research simulated 5 grades of mutual funds which located at efficiency frontier, and found the best investment strategies are different due to the different route of mutual funds. When mutual funds are growing, lump-sum cost investment is the best investment strategy; when mutual funds are slumping, dynamic adjustment investment is the best strategy; when mutual funds are flat, investors can create better performance than dollar-cost investment through dynamic adjustment. As a result, the best investment strategies are associated with the moment average retune of mutual funds.