運用存活模型研究顧客地緣分布與收入對顧客終身價值的影響–以通訊網路產業為例運用存活模型研究顧客地緣分布與收入對顧客終身價值的影響–以通訊網路產業為例

Abstract

近幾年，企業對於顧客關係管理（Customer Relationship Management，CRM）重視程度越來越高，主要原因是企業管理的方向不在只著重在生產導向，凡是以產品為主，以顧客需求為導向。加上資訊科技的迅速發展，使分析顧客資料更為便利暸解與分析顧客需求則成為企業既有經營的方針及未來價值最重要的參考指標。

相較於其他產業，電信業一直被視為國家的龍頭產業，我國電信市場多年以來是處於獨占的局面。近年來，因應國際潮流的變化，自1996年電信三法在立法院通過開放電信市場後，我國的電信事業就已經正式進入戰國時代；既有顧客流失的困境並不侷限於我國，比我國開放更早的美國無線通訊業者，已經面臨到嚴重顧客流失與利潤稀釋對企業所造成的負面影響。雖然美國無線通訊用戶(Subscriber)已經成長到1000 百萬 (MIC，2006)；但新加入的用戶佔整體成長不超過10％，從此可見無線通訊用戶的成長力道已經呈現飽和狀態，吸引新用戶不再成為電信業者的主要競爭策略，如何讓既有用戶續約同時提高利潤貢獻度，逐漸成為電信業者重視與研究的目標。

本研究係以利用美國Duke大學於2001年與美國某主要電信公司合作進行為期半年的顧客資料庫採樣，所取得共10萬筆顧客撥打手機的行為資料。以顧客居住地域與收入之不同，劃分十種不同顧客區隔，為資料庫主要分析的基礎。進一步利用存活分析作為主要研究之模式，探討哪些顧客區隔在使用電信服務具有較高的流失率，進而參考公式計算顧客終身價值。冀望能找出哪類型的族群有較高的顧客終身價值，提供給行銷管理者作為制定與規劃行銷策略的參考。

由本研究所得知，美國使用手機無線通訊服務的顧客群可依照居住地區與收入來看，居住於鄉村高收入的顧客群顯示出最高的顧客價值，這代表者高收入顧客在使用電信服務上較無預算限制，同時因為每顧客所搭配的通話資費不同，如欲詳細深入探討每一位顧客的終身價值則需要進一步的回朔原始個人資料方能呈現。

In recent years, Customer Relationship Management (CRM) generally gains more attention in the industry. One reason is the focus of the company management had changed to customer-orientated rather than production-orientated as in tradition. The rapid development in Information Technology (IT) is another; with the sophisticated IT capabilities, analyzing customer database to understand their wants and needs become far more convenience and cost effective. Therefore CRM would provide useful recommendation for the company’s future strategy.

Telecommunication has been the leading industry in countries worldwide, the telecommunication market had been in monopoly in Taiwan for past years. In 1996, Taiwan Telecommunication industry has de-regulated to overcome the increasing competition globally, since then, Taiwan telecommunication market enters severe price war for voice communication business and suffered from high customer churn rate as such phemoneon already happened in other countries internationally. Therefore customer acquisition is not the wining strategy for telecommunication but customer retention and increasing customer lifetime value recognized as the competitative advantages for players in telecommunication industry.

This thesis used the database from a major US telecommunication company who worked with Duke University in 2001. The database has divided into ten sets of customer segements by using the demographic variable - customer residential area and income, then refer to the survival analysis model to calculate which segment has higher churn rate over others, finally, calculate the customer lifetime value of each segments using the specified formula. The purpose is to understand which customer segments have higher customer lifetime value, so the managers in marketing field could plan tailor-made strategy.

As result, the US customer segment who lived in rural area with highest income showed the highest customer lifetime value, this could lead to conclusion that customers with higher income have less restriction on cell phone bills.