Evaluation of small-and medium-sized display market forecasts

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate small- and medium-sized display market forecasts made by a market research firm. Hypotheses concerning the relationship between stages of technology development and the accuracy of market forecasts are first developed. The hypotheses are then tested and evaluated using the data issued by one market research company, Techno Systems Research (TSR). Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test and nonparametric simple regression are the statistical methods used. The results of the data analysis showed that the forecasts made by the market research company are dependable for mature technology in mature markets, whereas for a new technology their forecasts are inaccurate. Furthermore, the accuracy of forecasts quite often does not improve over time. To our knowledge, no prior published works examine the accuracy of the forecasts made by market research firms. This research shows that small- and medium-sized display manufacturers have to be cautious when using forecast data from market research firms.