動態資訊與環境變動對大眾運輸使用者旅運/活動規劃之影響

Abstract

應用動態資訊系統傳遞即時且有效的訊息將提供機會使得大眾運輸使用者能享有較佳的 服務品質及充足的資訊，進而提高搭乘意願並達成交通需求管理的目標，在政府極力促進大 眾運輸的背景下，實需深入瞭解大眾運輸使用者於智慧型運輸技術應用下之行為特性，可作 為政府未來制訂良好的行銷策略與服務計畫以滿足大眾運輸使用者的需求，並提供政府發展 永續大眾運輸策略之參考。 動態資訊提供對旅運者決策行為之影響為一隨時間改變的動態過程，而過去研究未能探 討旅運者面臨動態資訊之提供，隨時間變化而改變旅運與活動決策之行為。首先，本研究擬 探討大眾運輸使用者於旅運/活動不同持續時間下受到動態資訊之影響如何動態調整旅運與 活動計畫，應用競爭危險函數與雙變量混合比例危險模式，分別構建改變預定旅運或活動規 劃之模式及改變旅運與活動規劃之聯合決策模型，探討動態資訊對旅運者於出發點、場站內 和運具中各個階段之旅運/活動規劃之影響。研究結果可瞭解旅運者於不同決策方案發生時間 之機率分配型態，提供大眾運輸業者掌握不同時間下運量的改變情形與對周遭活動商家所產 生之衝擊及可能增加之收益。繼而，考慮環境的不確定性與資訊品質的變異程度，包含意外 事件的發生機率與延滯程度，應用展望理論與需求理論，構建資訊提供對旅運者改變旅運與 活動決策之選擇模式，透過實證分析，可瞭解不確定性與確定性量化資訊對旅運者因應緊急 事件旅運與活動決策改變之行為，結果可作為大眾運輸業者研擬並規劃意外與緊急事件發生 時之協調應變策略之參考。

Dynamic information provides travelers with timely and useful information and may increase travelers’ awareness of available activity and transit service, thereby enhancing the utilization of public transport. Dynamic information plays key role for sustainable development, and with telematics and dynamic information technology development, how to use advanced technology to improve public transportation services has become an important issue. The provision of timely information has resulted in significant impacts on travel activity behaviors of transit users, who may behave in a dynamic way in response to changing environment. However, few studies pay attention to investigate the relationship between travel and activity decisions which have been dependent on time while taking into account dynamic environment and information provision. This study aims to investigate how transit users dynamically adjust their travel activity plans in response to changing environment and dynamic information, and further to discuss whether and how uncertain information affects the choice behavior of transit users. First, this study formulates competing risk survival models and bivariate mixed proportional hazard model to explore the effect of dynamic information on the travel and activity behaviors of transit users. In light of various time and space constraints, the models will explore different dynamic decision behavior for transit travelers at different locations including origins such as homes or offices, transit terminals and onboard of trains or buses. Further, the study applies prospect theory and formulates multinomial logit models to analyze how transit riders change their travel and activity behaviors in repose to incidents or emergencies via different types of deterministic and stochastic information. The stochastic information will indicate the probability and duration of delays due to incidents. The calibrated results will serve as references on both designing the details of dynamic stochastic information and proposing alternative plans for travelers in case of emergencies. The results not only shed light on understanding the dynamic travel and activity behaviors but also can be served as references to capture dynamic demand for transit and activity providers.