臺灣主要港口附近海域長期波浪統計特性及設計波推算之研究(4/4)

Abstract

本研究主要為探討臺灣主要港口附近海域波浪之長期統計特性及設計波之推算，應用港研中心於主要港口所觀測、彙整之歷史波浪資料，建立基隆與臺中兩港的類神經颱風波浪推算模式，並以其結果進行相關長期性之波浪統計特性探討；另外設計波浪一直是港灣結構時極為重要之設計條件，本年度探討基隆與臺中兩港極值波高季節性變化之情況。分析兩港實測波浪之每月極值統計特性以及推算各回歸期之設計波浪。再比較樣本之取樣方法影響設計波浪之因素，最後進行波浪極值統計視窗化操作之初步建立。

The project aims to establish Typhoon wave model and investigate the long-term wave statistics at main harbors of Taiwan through extreme analysis on the long-term wave data collected by IHMT. This third year of a 4-year sequence project is for Keelung and Taichung harbors. The goodness of samples of typhoon waves and estimators of the parameters in the possible probability functions are examined to decide the design wave at both harbors. In this year, the observed data at Taipei and Anpin harbors was analyzed to show the seasonal variations of significant wave heights and periods each month and season. The proposed wave statistics model will be operated by a developed graphical user inference (GUI) for easy practice.