公路公共運輸發展政策推動效益之評估與回饋－運具選擇行為變動之分析及決策支援系統建置(2/2)

Abstract

為提供民眾便捷的公共運輸服務，交通部已爭取3年150億的經費發展公路公共運輸，由人本與永續之觀點進行我國公共運輸服務現況之改善，創造有利的經營條件，以提升公共運輸使用率，俾降低私人運具產生的交通擁擠與空氣污染。為能客觀檢討經費的投資效益，有必要透過科學與系統方式衡量需求端的反應，以協助決策者評估各項政策目標的達成度，並作為修正長短期策略的回饋依據，以避免投資的浪費。據此，發展具有學理基礎，並能便於決策者所採納運用之評估方式與回饋機制有其必要。 本研究首先透過大規模全國性之問卷調查及資料蒐集，利用個體選擇理論模式，建構可反應不同居住區域、不同旅次特性之全國型及區域型旅運者運具選擇模式。同時以總體角度（以鄉鎮市區為單位）建立公共運輸使用率之迴歸計量模式，俾利個體及總體之交互印證與支援。接續，擬以追蹤問卷訪問方式，探究受訪者在各項公共運輸服務現況改善或增加後，是否改變各種旅次目的之運具選擇行為，並據此模式推估及資料蒐集之結果與比較，建構一套決策支援系統，俾用於評估交通部公路公共運輸政策之具體成效，有助於後續相關經費編列與分配之決策。

To provide a convenient and high-quality public transportation service, Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) implements public transportation development projects with a budget of 5 billion NT dollars to improve public transportation during 2010~2012 so as to create a better operational environment for public transportation and to attract more private vehicles users towards transportation sustainbability. However, to examine the cost-effectiveness of this project, it is imperial to develop theoretic and systematic models to evaluate goal achievement and to feedback necessary adjustments based on the changes in demand-side behaviors. Based on this, this study employs disaggregate choice theory to develop a mode choice model for travelers in various residential areas and with different trip characteristics based on a large-scale nationwide questionnaire survey. Meanwhile, an aggregate econometric model is also developed by regressing public transportaion usage rate on related explanatory variables. The estimations results of both disaggregate and aggregate models can be cross-validated and mutually supported. Based on the estimated models, a decision support system is then developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the public transportation development policy and to facilitae budgeting and allocation decisions for consequent years.