核能電廠緊急應變計畫區民眾疏散方案規劃與模擬分析

Abstract

由於2011年日本311大地震與海嘯引起的日本福島電廠核子事故之衝擊，原能會已重新檢討與定義我國核能電廠緊急應變計畫區(EPZ)之範圍，由半徑5公里擴大至8公里，同時也考慮8至16公里範圍內的相關民眾防護規劃。本研究即依據最新公佈的EPZ定義，對核能一、二、三廠及龍門電廠進行緊急應變計畫區民眾疏散方案規劃與模擬分析。

路網疏散規劃是核能電廠緊急應變計畫中重要的一環。國立交通大學自民國76年已發展完成一套TEVACS路網疏散決策支援系統，可協助相關單位分析不同疏散作業方式下所需之疏散時間。最近的版本為民國98年所改版的TEVACS 2010系統，巳結合GIS地理資訊系統功能。本期計畫根據EPZ的更新，對於各核電廠EPZ擴大定義之範圍的道路，人口車輛，集結點與收容站等資料將進行調查與收集彙整，以更新TEVACS系統的相關資料庫。此外，亦將重新建置各核電廠的疏散網路模式及GIS圖層，以評估新定義EPZ範圍內的民眾集結點與收容站等設置地點，進而模擬估算不同情境下所需的疏散時間，與評估分析比較不同的疏散改善方案。各種情境與方案的模擬與評估分析結果，將可提供委託單位作緊急應變計畫之參考依據。

Due to the Japanese 311 earthquake and tsunami disaster and the subsequent nuclear power plant incidents occurred earlier this year (2011), the government has reviewed and redefined the EPZ (Emergency Planning Zone) for the nuclear power plants in Taiwan. The radius of EPZ has changed from 5 KM to 8 KM. In addition, a secondary zone surrounding the nuclear power plant in the range of 8 to 16 KM is also considered for properly receiving and accommodating the evacuated population. Based on the newly updated EPZ definition and concepts, this project aimed at developing and evaluating evacuation plans for the nuclear power plants in Taiwan.

TEVACS (Transportation EVACuation System) is a computerized decision support system developed by our research team for transportation evacuation applications in Taiwan. Due to the change of EPZ range, in this project, we will redesign the TEVACS system to adapt the increased evacuation network model. All data bases related to population, vehicle ownership, street network and proper gathering/sheltering locations will be updated, and more alternatives must be generated and simulated. All the simulation under different scenarios will be analyzed to improve the evacuation plans. Results of this study should provide useful guidelines for future nuclear emergency planning for the nuclear power plants in Taiwan.