供水系統綜合可靠度分析

Abstract

台灣水庫為主要的原水供水來源，原水經過淨水廠處理後變成自來水，而後經由配水管網至使用者。過去許多研究顯示供水系統可靠度常多集中於原水段或配水段。此外，供水可靠度不能僅看水量，水質亦是影響供水安全的重要因子。高強度降雨造成原水濁度升高至淨水廠無法負荷而停水。過去研究多僅考慮各段的水量但未考慮水質問題。因此，以水量來看供水可靠度或風險(缺水率、脆弱度、彈性度)，可能會有估計樂觀的情況；為了真正了解供水系統的可靠度，本研究計畫書將提出一個供水系統可靠度的分析流程，建立供水系統水量與水質模擬模式。第一年將建立完整供水系統的模擬模式，以及完成原水段子系統的細部分析；第二年將建立淨水場子系統的細部分析流程，並併入供水系統；第三年將完成配水管網子系統的細部分析，並併入供水系統，完成完整分析。本研究的特色為同時考慮水質與水量的供水問題，藉以了解供水系統的水量、水質、或兩者的失敗機率，以提供給水資源與淨水廠經營者改善的根據，並提高使用者對供水系統品質的信心。

Drinking water in Taiwan commonly comes through three major processes: (1) raw water from reservoirs, (2) treatment plants, and (3) distribution network. Some studies have shown that the water supply reliability usually focuses either on the raw water or distribution sections. In addition, high turbidity caused by intensive rainfalls usually overloads the water treatment plant and causes water supply ceased temporarily. Therefore, the water shortage rate, vulnerability, and flexibility could be potentially overestimated if without taking account water quality. Moreover, the “reliability” was misread that most researchers only concentrated on quantity rather than quality. Both quantity and quality are the most concerns for the water consumers. Thus, this study would like to: (1) redefine “water supply reliability” as that both water quantity and quality meet up with the satisfaction of consumers; (2) develop a methodology to analyze the water supply system as a whole. In the first year, a water supply system simulation model will be developed. Synthetic flow and discharge-turbidity will be used to analyze the reliability of raw water subsystem. In the second year, availability theorem will be employed to analyze the failure probability of detail components of water treatment plants and their relations with water quality. In the third year, availability theorem will also be employed analyze the failure probability of detail components of distribution network. The results of this study can be a very fundamental basis for the water administrators to improve and maintain their facilities from top the bottom, and enhance the consumer confidence in drinking water.