核能電廠緊急應變計畫區民眾疏散方案模擬分析

Abstract

民眾集結與路網疏散規劃是核能電廠緊急應變計畫中相當重要的一環。由於2011年日本311大地震與海嘯引起的日本福島電廠核子事故之衝擊，原能會已重新檢討與定義我國核能電廠緊急應變計畫區(EPZ)之範圍，由半徑5公里擴大至8公里。本計畫係在EPZ定義範圍更新後，首次進行有關核電防護民眾疏散規劃的大規模研究。研究範圍包括核能一、二、三廠及龍門電廠周圍8公里半徑之緊急應變計畫區，並延伸至16公里範圍。 本計畫係以TEVACS (Transportation EVACuation System)路網疏散決策支援系統為主要工具，用以分析在不同情境與疏散作業方式下所需之疏散時間，並提供核安單位的決策輔助參考。本期計畫所完成的是TEVACS 2013版本，具體成果包括：(1)研究範圍內人口、車輛與道路等資料之蒐集與分析，(2)各電廠EPZ集結點、收容站與疏散車輛需求之規劃，(3)各電廠疏散路線之規劃，(4)各電廠展示系統地理資料庫建置，(5) TEVACS系統更新與功能加強:系統疏散與展示範圍延伸至16 公里半徑範圍，(6) 考慮包括524種情境與3公里，8公里與16公里(臨時收容站)三種不同範圍的疏散時間模擬分析，(7) EPZ 路網疏散時間之估算與改善，結果發現基本狀況情境下，對核二廠的改善幅度高達53 %，可有效縮短疏散時間。

Due to the Japanese 311 earthquake and tsunami disaster, and the subsequent nuclear power plant incidents occurred in 2011, the government has reviewed and redefined the EPZ (Emergency Planning Zone) for all the three nuclear power plants in Taiwan. The radius of EPZ has changed from 5 km to 8 km. Following the new EPZ definition, this project covers the evacuation planning of a 16-km radius area for each of the three nuclear power plants and the Long-Mann power plant in Taiwan. The TEVACS (Transportation EVACuation System) is a GIS-based decision support system developed by our research team since 1987. The system comprises four modules: (1) system control, (2) data management, (3) network simulation model, and (4) graphical interface and display. The earlier version of TEVACS was completed in 2010. In this project, we have updated all the data bases related to population, vehicle ownership, and street network. We also proposed new locations of the gathering points and shelters of related evacuation plans. In addition, we have upgraded the TEVACS and extended the evacuation simulation to a 16-km radius area surrounding each of the nuclear power plants There are at least 524 scenarios which have been considered for each power plant in our study, and in each of the scenario the evacuation times were estimated for 3-km, 8-km and 16-km boundaries respectively. With the assistance of TEVACS, we have generated optimal evacuation plans which can effectively reduce the evacuation times to as much as 53%. Results of this study should provide useful guidelines for further evacuation planning of all the power plants in Taiwan.