以複合式專利分析為基之科技發展與投資機會預測方法論---以醫療設備研發為例

Abstract

在當前的競爭環境下，掌握關鍵專利與智財已經成為企業在經營策略上相當重要的一環，主因專 利可用於創造新產品或新興服務，並可獲得智財權的法律保障，是企業在全球市場中保持其競爭優勢 的利器。根據相關統計報導顯示，2009 年全球醫療產業年產值達2800 億美金，以每年平均8%成長， 2016 年預估其產值將超過4900 億美元 (Biotech Partnering News, 2010)，可見此產業之全球市場將隨 著全球醫療需求的增加而大幅成長，它也是近年我國積極推動的科技產業發展的主軸之一。因此本研 究將發展以專利智財分析為基之科技發展與投資機會預測方法論，並以醫療設備研發為例，導入方法 論之應用，進行深入之案例分析。 當前的企業正致力於調整其戰略計劃於相關之研發活動，以求能夠趕上創新技術之趨勢。對高科 技產業來說，利用專利分析建立精準的研發策略，是相當重要的工作。除了監控產業發展（尤其競爭 對手）的趨勢外，還能協助研發人員追蹤產品開發歷史並評估技術機會。專利分析不僅能幫助企業確 立研發重點方向、避免既有（習知）技術之重複開發、並能精準掌握企業研發經費的投資標的。本研 究旨在以複合式專利分析為基，以產業專利群聚分析以及專利統計模型建構，推論領域技術生命週期 現況，並協助產業了解技術現況和預估未來之發展。本計畫將以醫療設備研發為產業標的（以牙醫醫 療設備為案例）。專利之群聚技術將分別以兩大主軸來進行，其一將透過倒傳遞類神經網路來進行專 利技術群聚，篩選出牙醫醫療設備產業之相關專利；而另一主軸則是為了減少倒傳遞類神經網路群聚 結果可能產生的相關專利之遺漏，針對第一年方法排除在外的專利，以IPC & UPC 為基的關鍵詞彙比 對，進行專利技術分群方法論的發展，選出仍具相當程度之相關技術專利以補強倒傳遞類神經網路結 果之不足。最後在科技預測部分，本研究將透過產業技術相關專利之數量趨勢分析與預測，深入解析 產業技術之成熟度，利用ARIMA 預測模型以及S 曲線模型，評估產業技術整體之生命週期，幫助企 業了解科技發展趨勢，並進行其研發投資機會之剖析。

The year 2016 forecast for the medical equipment industry is valued at US$490 billion while the current value in 2009 reached US$280 billion (Biotech Partnering News, 2010). The market demand is rapidly increasing with global consumer demand and income growth. Patents have become a vital part of the strategy to create dominant products or services in the current competitive environment. Firms must be on the cutting edge in order to stay competitive in global market. Thus, they must deliver new innovative products, improve processes, and adapt technology to meet market demands. Creating new medical equipment products that are first to market can generate substantial market share, if and only if these inventions are protected by a patent. For medical equipment, it is important to protect key features like design elements to make the product unique and competitive. Firms strive to orient their strategic plans and conduct R&D activities that are aligned with emerging technology trends. High technology firms use patent analysis for establishing technology and R&D strategies for monitoring trends, identifying technology opportunities, and tracking historical product development. Patent analysis helps firms to set R&D priorities, reduce expenses, and identify for future investment opportunities. The proposed research identify demand for dental equipment industry technology by applying patent analysis and statistical forecasting models. The methodology helps industry identify technology life cycles. On the patent analysis side, the process is divided into two parts. One part classifies the patents using the BPANN approach which selects domain related patents for dental equipment. The other part first clusters the patents which were excluded by BPANN based on mapping the IPCs, UPCs and key phrases, then selects patents which are most related to the dental equipment industry. For technology forecasting, the research uses an ARIMA model and the S-Curve method to analyze the number of patents in the trend as well as the duration and different stages of the technology life cycle. The end results help enterprises understand the technology trends and improve their R&D investment portfolios.