氣候變遷下農業用水對區域水資源供水效益與風險之影響分析

Abstract

農業用水一向佔整體用水之大宗，隨著社會發展及WTO的加入，農業面臨著降低用水以支援其他用水標的之壓力。然受全球氣候變遷影響，水文狀況已與過去有所不同，農業用水移用策略為因應氣候變遷的可能調適策略之一，惟就區域水資源調配而言，由於不同用水標的及各水源間的互動關係複雜，不同的農業用水移用策略對區域水資源調配所產生的影響亦相當複雜。因此，宜有一個更有效的評估方式，對其它用水標的，因移用農業用水而可能增加的供水量及經濟財務效益，進行不確定性及及風險分析，以作為後續建立農業用水移用合理補償機制之參考。 本計畫目的即基於區域水資源調配的角度，考量氣候變遷對整體環境及水文之影響下，應用系統動力學，探討各種農業用水移用策略對於區域水資源永續利用產生之效益與風險。

Conventionally, the agriculture uses most of the total water supply in Taiwan. The social development and be a member of WTO are forcing the agriculture sector to reduce their water use and transfer the saved water to other water use sectors such as industry and domestic. Beside, recently investigation have indicated that the global climate change have impacted the regional hydrology and water resources. Transferring agriculture water use to other sectors is one of the potentially feasible strategies to reduce the impact of global climate change on regional water supply. However, because of the complicated interaction among the water use sectors and water sources, the impact and benefit of transferring the agriculture water to other sectors are also very complex. Therefore, a more efficient method is necessary for accessing the uncertainty and risk of increasing water supply and financial benefits of other sectors by transferring agriculture water。 This research is to access the benefit and risk of transferring the agriculture water to other water use sectors considering the impact of global climate change, and a regional water allocation model based on system dynamic theory is developed to facilitate the analysis.