台灣積體電路產業群聚中國之獲利與區位競合分析

Abstract

本計畫以擴散理論為基礎，運用的成長模型模擬台灣積體電路（IC）產業赴中國形 成聚落的群聚動態過程。研究目的有二：1.比較IC 產業價值鍊不同階段間(設計、製造 與封測)群聚中國演化的差異，測試哪一階段企業會模仿同產業企業跟進赴中國設立據 點。2.比較台灣赴中國不同區域（華東、華南、華北、西南）形成IC 產業聚落的差異， 檢驗中國哪一地區招商廣告對台灣IC 企業吸引力最強。 過去聚落相關文獻主要從事質性研究，鮮少文獻量化聚落遷移的現象，主要原因是 過去研究不易找到證據或數據說明產業群落。幸運的是，台灣積體電路產業提供揭露赴 中國直接投資(FDI)與營業額的會計報表克服這個問題，若台商赴中國大陸直接投資華 東、華北、華南與西南地區直接投資金額與營業額愈大，表示聚落規模越大。本研究首 度同時運用Bass 與Gompertz 兩個成長模型進行統計分析，透過參數估計值闡述台商群 聚中國哪一地區聚落規模最大，半導體產業哪一個生產階段聚落規模最大，研析中國招 商廣告或同業相互模仿影響力何者主導台商赴中國形成聚落，進而比較Bass 與Gompertz 模型何者解釋赴中國形成聚落較精確，配適度較高，研究結果可作為企業布局與策略參 考。

Based on clustering theory, diffusion theory and disintegration theory, this study employs S-curve models to simulate the dynamic process of Taiwan＇s IC industry clustering in China. The S-curve models include Bass model and Gomprtz model. There are two aims of this study: First, this study proposes to compare the various stages (design, manufacturing and packaging) along the IC industrial value chain to explore their differences in their process of clustering in China. This study tests in which stage companies would imitate other firms to set up branch chapters in China. Second, this study compares the differences in motivation for Taiwanese IC industrial firms to cluster in the various Chinese regions (eastern, southern, northern, and southwestern) and investigates which region poses the most effective advertisements to attract Taiwanese IC industrial investment. Previous studies on industrial clustering mainly focuses on qualitative research rather than employing a quantitative approach, mainly because the evidences or data that explains industrial clustering are not easy to find. Fortunately, Taiwanese IC industry provides the accounting statements of the China-bound foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI is defined as the capital investment from firms in one country used to build facilities in another. As Taiwanese IC companies have expanded into China through investment in production facilities, the amount of FDI transferred to China has increased, thereby leading to the expansion of industrial clusters located in China. The amount of FDI invested by Taiwanese companies in China is a reliable gauge of the extent to which industrial clusters from Taiwan have expanded into China. This work adopted FDI as a quantitative indicator to formulate a growth model for evaluating the extension of industrial clusters among various Chinese regions and along the IC value chain. Whether an economic region has industrial clustering is a primary factor of consideration for investment plans. It is apparent that the contribution of this study is to highlight the location choice strategy in industrial clusters and to provide valuable references for enterprise branch arrangements.