以網際網路科技改善德爾菲法應用於技術前瞻之問題

Abstract

自19 世紀以來，前瞻受到各國所重視，並廣為不同國家、區域或組織所接受，因 為全球化自由市場的競爭壓力、知識本質的轉型，各國紛紛開始嘗試運用一套系統性的 方法，長期性地調查未來科學、技術、經濟與社會環境，尋找可能獲得經濟、社會與環 境利益極大化之研究基礎領域與新興科技。綜觀各國之技術前瞻計畫，德爾菲法是最普 遍被採用之研究方法，然而德爾菲法在實際執行的過程中，存在許多窒礙難行的問題， 例如問卷的回收與分析之困難、問卷結果發散之問題、紙張作業的環保問題等，倘若上 述問題無法加以克服，將會影響技術前瞻計畫之效率與成果的品質。因此，本研究計畫 期望藉由網際網路之技術，建構一個執行技術前瞻的線上平台，用以改善傳統德菲法之 缺點，同時利用專家意見法，透過各領域專家之討論探討該平台之可行性，並且藉由腦 力激盪的方式思考是否仍有其他不足或尚未界定之問題及解決方法。最後，經本研究小 組整理分析後，明確界定台灣未來運用德菲法於執行技術前瞻計畫可能遇到的問題以及 解決方案，以期作為日後台灣進行技術前瞻計畫之參考。

Since the 19th century, the concept of technology foresight has been paid attention to by various countries, and accepted by different countries, regions or organizations. Because the transition of the knowledge essence and the pressure of the global free market competiton, various countries begin trying to use a set of systematic methods one after another, and to investigate the science, technology, economy and social environment in long period of the future, looking for the fundamental research field and evolving scientific technology that may maximize economic, social and environmental benefits. Take a broad view of of the technology foresight projects among various countries, Delphi is the most general methodology. However, Delphi has been found lots of problems in pratical progress, for example the difficulty in receiving and analyzing the questionnaire , dealing with the divergent questionnaire results, and decreasing the waste of paper, etc. If above-mentioned problems are unable to overcome, the quality and efficiency of technology foresight will be influenced. Therefore, the goal of this project is to construct an on-line platform, carrying out the technology foresight with the internet, to improve the shortcomings of traditional Delphi, also the expert opinion method will be included to discuss the feasibility of this platform and to think whether there is any other problem and practicable solution not defined yet. After putting all of these analysis together, not only the problems of using Delphi in technology foresight will finally be defined but also the adaptive soluctions will be found out to became a reference for implementing technology foresight in Taiwan in the future.