台商對外投資大陸之區位順序選擇行為：層級貝氏順序羅吉斯迴歸模型之應用

Abstract

本研究根據台灣廠商至大陸投資的區位順序選擇行爲，驗證區位優勢理論及國際化程序的觀點。典型的對外投資區位選擇研究係以區位特性做爲自變數，應變數則可分爲兩類：投資地點的總合投資量及廠商之投資地點選擇；前者無法探討個別廠商的決策行爲，後者則不易估計廠商層次的參數估計。因此，本研究根據個別廠商對陸投資地點的先後順序，搭配投資地點的區位優勢（如市場潛力、勞工便宜、交通便利、聚集經濟等）以及投資前置時間，討論廠商之投資區位偏好及學習效果。有別於以平均效果估計爲實證結果的傳統統計模型，本研究建立層級貝氏順序羅吉斯迴歸模型，整合不同分析層次的資料，用以衡量廠商間具異質性的投資偏好結構，並以廠商比例的概念說明研究假說的實證結果，符合資源基礎理論的邏輯。

This study examines the location advantage theory and the internationalization process from the ranking of locations of foreign direct investment (FDI) decided by Taiwanese firms in Mainland China. The typical approach to estimating effects of location-specific determinants usually uses two kinds of dependent variables, the aggregate amount of investment located in a location and the probability of FDI located in a location. However, the formal one is unable to capture firm-level decision behaviors, and the latter one is difficultly used to estimate firm-level parameters. Therefore, our model employs the ranks of FDI location chosen by firms as the dependent variable to evaluate firm-level preference structure of location advantages and learning effects measured by the effects of location-specific determinants such as market potential, labor cost, and transportation cost, and of the time to prepare for FDI on the ranks of FDI locations. Different from the traditional model estimating average effects, we adopt an HB ROLR model which can integrate different data sources to capture the heterogeneity among firm-level preferences regarding the features of FDI locations. This study also examines the research hypotheses with statements of a proportion of firms based on the logics of the resource-based view.