預算目標達成對風險投資的影響：展望理論與過去績效歸因的探討

Abstract

本研究以實驗設計法，透過共變數分析探討在預算強調下預算目標達成與否，對後續風險性投資計畫的選擇與資源投入的影響，繼而探討過去績效結果歸因因子在上述關係中是否存在調節效果。透過實證結果發現，在預算強調下個人風險投資行為與資源投入受到過去績效結果的影響，因而支持展望理論的觀點與續擴效果，即未達成（達成）預算目標的受測者傾向高（低）風險的投資計畫。且本研究更進一步發現，過去績效結果歸因因子在上述關係中扮演著調節效果的角色。穩定因子可以降低失敗組受測者的風險愛好行為（反射效果），但不論穩定因子或不穩定因子都無法影響成功組受測者的風險規避行為（確定效果）。未達到預算目標者有顯著的續擴行為，其中不穩定因子比穩定因子更能強化續擴效果。

This study explores the impacts of budget achievement on the choice of risky investment and resources escalation. In addition, we investigate the moderate effect of performance attribution on the above-mentioned relationship. We collected data through experiment design and analysis data through ANCOVA to test our hypotheses. The results support the inference of prospect theory and escalation effect. The subject, who do not achieve budgetary goal (in the loss condition), will choice riskier investment project and escalating much more resource on the previous project, in the condition of budgeting emphasized pay scheme. In addition, if they attributed the bad performance to stable factors they will choose riskier investment project than to unstable factors. Instead, there is no effect of performance attribution on the risky investment selection in the gain condition.