利率交換之利差期間結構模型－吻合殖利率曲線與分析解

Abstract

本文拓展Grinblatt(2001)以流動性做為IRS利差期間結構決定因子的均衡理論模型，使之更一般化與吻合現今市場上的殖利率曲線，並將Grinblatt(2001)的模型納為一特例。根據本文建構的IRS利差期間結構模型做實證，可以矯正Grinblatt(2001)理論與實證不一致的問題。本文樣本內的實證結果與Grinblatt(2001)者相似，即模型配適樣本內的市場上實際之IRS利差資料非常好。再者，本文樣本外的實證結果顯示：模型對預測樣本外的IRS利差之趨勢，具備不錯的預測能力；但是，對於預測IRS利差的準確度上則是不足的。

This paper expands on the Equilibrium Model of Grinblatt (2001), where liquidity determines the term structure of IRS spreads. The new framework discussed here further generalizes the model for describing IRS spreads, assimilates the yield curve presently seen in the market, and incorporates the model of Grinblatt (2001) by making it a special case. Empirical studies, based on the IRS Spread Term Structure Model proposed by this paper, are able to account for the inconsistency between the theory and empirical studies of Grinblatt (2001). The empirical results of this paper are comparable to those of Grinblatt (2001), and the model fits quite well the sample of actual IRS spreads. In addition, empirical studies conducted for out-samples indicate that this model has the capacity to forecast, quite accurately, the future trend of out-sample IRS spreads. However, the accuracy, with which predictions of future IRS spreads for out-samples are made, continues to be inadequate.