不確定財務環境下之BOT計畫自償率與財務資源分配分析

Abstract

自償率或淨現值法常被用來評估BOT計畫財務效益分析之用。但是，這些指標僅止於說明計畫是否具備投資可行性，無法有效詮釋政府或融資者對計畫財務能力之貢獻，亦無法解釋政府、融資者與民間公司在計畫中之財務分配問題。因而，本文目的在於利用數學規劃概念，分別構建修正自償率與法定自償率數學規劃模式，並以台北港BOT計畫進行實證分析。研究結果顯示，考量計畫財務資源，得修正自償率為1.584093，法定自償率為1.349319，此較政府所評估之自償率1.16為高。若將財務影響因素納入考慮，修正自償率與法定自償率分別降為1.527719與1.302056，但亦較1.16為高，民間尋求融資機構更多的協助，從而降低其投資風險。經本文分析顯示，政府或融資者參與本計畫與否，對於提升計畫自償能力影響甚鉅。同時，本文模式可解釋三者在計畫之財務分配情形，改善現行自償率之缺失。

The self-liquidation ratio (SLR) or net present value (NPV) has been widely used to evaluate the financial effect of Build, Operation and Transfer (BOT) projects by some studies. However, they are good only for demonstrating the financial potential of an investment project, not able to show financial ability of the BOT projects invested by public or financial institutions or fail to display the financial investment resources allocation in financial project among private, financial institutions, and public sector. The purpose of this study is to formulate the mathematical programming and fuzzy programming models for analyzing the SLR and SLR-extension indexes respectively by using the mathematical programming approach. Meanwhile, The Taipei Port BOT project was conducted as the case study to measure SLR-extension and SLR, respectively and the result shows that the SLR-extension values computed by programming model and fuzzy programming models are higher than that of the SLR for Taipei Port BOT Projects. From which we learn that these models developed herein can demonstrate the increasing financial ability of BOT projects with government joint-venture investment, and these models can also be applied to illustrate the phenomenon of the allocation in financial resources for BOT projects.