建構汽機車使用程度之階層線性模式

Abstract

隨著經濟的成長，人民整體旅運需求大幅增加，使得我國汽、機車持有與使用均快速成長。然而台灣地狹人稠，道路面積成長有限，這種供需失調的結果，造成都市內交通壅塞，肇事率與停車問題日益嚴重，並且增加了許多如空氣、噪音污染等的外部社會成本。政府雖極力推廣使用大眾運輸，但國人的旅運習慣仍以仰賴私人運具為主。為了避免汽、機車使用量持續增加，政府實需制訂適切政策與措施以管制汽、機車之成長。本研究考慮到使用量資料階層結構之影響，因此應用階層線性迴歸模式分別建構全國之汽車、機車使用程度之模式，以探討不同地區特性(如：大眾運輸供給、道路密度或產業結構等)對於居民汽機車使用的程度之影響。汽車模式結果顯示汽車使用量平均值與維修費、燃油費、機車持有數、汽車排氣量之斜率在地區間之差異顯著。機車模式結果顯示燃油費之斜率在地區間之差異顯著。

The overall travel demand has increased substantially in Taiwan with the growth of the economy, which leads to a rapid expansion in the ownership and usage of cars and motorcycles. Although the expansion increases, there is only limited space to build roads. This imbalance results in several problems such as traffic congestion, growth of accident rates, shortage in parking space, and higher external social costs. The Government has tried to promote the use of public transportation, but the public still relies mainly on private vehicles. In order to avoid the usage of private vehicles expanding rapidly, the Government should develop appropriate policies and measures to control the usage of cars and motorcycles to grow. In consideration of the influence of hierarchical structure of usage data, hence, the usage models are based on hierarchical linear model for the purpose of discussing the different effects of zonal characteristics on the usage of cars and motorcycles. The result of car model reveals the average car usage and the slope of maintenance cost, fuel cost and the number of motorcycles are significantly different between the regions. The motorcycle model shows there is a significant difference in the slope of fuel cost between the regions.