服飾業季末停止補貨之研究

Abstract

本研究以大陸某平價服飾業為例，主要探討在拉式補貨的操作模式下，季末該如何停止補貨方能降低剩餘庫存並提升有效產出。由於服飾業單品毛利低，業者往往備高庫存以避免缺貨，然而，若銷售期間堆積過多的庫存，即使提早停止補貨亦無法順利售出所有商品，將導致季末折價出清，傷害淨利。因此本研究將從三個方面進行探討： 1. 何時進行折價能使得虧損最低 2. 下架前需補貨數量公式 3. 何時停止補貨 首先分析庫存與缺貨間的權衡。再者，提出『下架前需補貨數量』一預測公式，使其在各時間點能夠補充合適的貨量，以求降低停止補貨時間點對於有效產出的影響。最後利用複迴歸分析找出產品銷售下滑的時間點，提供停止補貨的參考區間。 研究結果顯示，利用銷售下滑點做為停止補貨的依據不能有效解決季末庫存過高或是缺貨的問題，需搭配合適的貨量才能顯著提升有效產出。因此，在缺貨優於存貨的前提下，使用『下架前需補貨數量』公式並且在銷售下滑點提早停止補貨，可以使有效產出較現況平均提升14%。

Using an affordable clothing business which takes Demand-Pull as its replenishment method for example, this paper is mainly about how to stop replenishing to decrease inventory and increase throughput. While keeping high inventory to prevent shortage, there’s a risk that inventory might happen to be too high to sell out before the end of the season. In this respect, we divide our research into three parts: 1. When is the appropriate time to discount 2. What amount to replenish before off-shelf 3. When to stop replenishing First, we discuss about the trade-off between inventory and shortage. Second, we provide a prediction formula which is able to calculate how much to replenish in each stage in product life cycle, so that we can decrease the effect of stop replenishing time. Final, we apply multiple regression analysis to find out which point in product life cycle is declining. The test result shows that only stop replenishing on declining point cannot solve the problem, we still need to replenish with appropriate amount. Therefore, we use prediction formula to calculate how much to replenish, and stop when selling trend become decline. This improvement will increase 14% throughput than current status.