臺灣人身保險業各險種保險收入趨勢比較分析

Abstract

本研究欲探討我國人身保險業各險種保險收入在控制經濟因素情境下的趨勢比較分析，並以展望理論的觀點來預測人身保險業各險種保險收入趨勢走向，故採用多元迴歸模型進行趨勢分析以求驗證。展望理論說明，當人們在面對利得時會有風險趨避的傾向，面對損失時則有風險愛好的傾向。也就是說，當人們面對不同險種時會根據其認知的利得與損失而形成不同的風險偏好情形，導致各險種的保險收入趨勢不盡相同。研究結果發現，在不受經濟因素的影響下，臺灣人身保險業近十年的整體保險收入仍然向上成長，而各險種的發展趨勢亦如同展望理論所推論的結果一般會有不同的走向。而在研究貢獻上，本研究期望臺灣各大保險公司能透過此分析結果，針對不同險種提出相對應的管理策略，並且利用更有效率的方式提升保險收入、促進人身保險業的未來發展。

This study focused on the comparative analysis of all types of personal insurance income trends in Taiwan. We based on the Prospect Theory to predict the insurance income trends of four insurance types and used Multiple Regression model to test the hypothesis. Prospect Theory suggested that people will become risk-averters when they have gains, and they will become risk-lovers when they have losses. In our study, that means when people need to decide whether to buy the insurance or not, they will evaluate the situations and form the different risk attitudes toward different types of insurance, and that will influence the insurance income trends of all types of personal insurance. Our major empirical results are: First, the whole personal insurance income trend was increasing during last decade when we excluded the economic factors. Second, the insurance income trends of four types of personal insurance were different, and all confirmed the hypothesis. We hope the results of this study can help the insurance companies to apply different product strategies to different insurance types, that might improve the future development of insurance industry.