蘋果公司與黑莓公司之智慧型手機競合關係- 以全球及北美地區為例

Abstract

智慧型手機已逐漸改變了人們的生活，而智慧型手機市場也日趨競爭激烈。先進者黑莓公司領先其他品牌推出的信件推播服務，是市場上第一支可以主動將信件伺服器上的新信件傳送到行動裝置上的智慧型手機；然而後進者蘋果公司，推出的第一款智慧型手機，憑藉其獨樹一格的外型、使用者介面等特色，在市場上立即造成了轟動。 本研究將以生物生態學的Lotka-Volterra模型作為研究架構，探討蘋果公司智慧型手機與黑莓公司智慧型手機於全球及北美市場的用戶數量之動態競合關係，分析可能影響其競合關係的原因。本研究亦使用Bass模型，對相同的資料樣本進行估計與預測，比較分析兩種模型的預測結果準確度。 研究結果顯示，蘋果公司與黑莓公司的智慧型手機產品，在全球市場中屬於掠食者與獵物的關係；而在北美市場中，兩者為偏害共生的關係。在模型精確度方面，Lotka-Volterra模型與Bass模型配適度皆為顯著，且均衡分析結果顯示，蘋果公司與黑莓公司的智慧型手機產品在長期競爭下，在全球與北美市場皆會達到穩定均衡狀態。研究結果亦可看出，黑莓公司智慧型手機在新興市場仍有發展機會，故在全球市場中不至滅亡；但在北美地區，黑莓公司智慧型手機在蘋果智慧型手機強勢侵蝕之下，用戶數量將逐季衰退至零。蘋果公司與黑莓公司接下來的產品發展計劃，將繼續牽動智慧型手機市場的生態。

In last decade, with the rapid development of technology products, smartphones have gradually changed our lives. As a first-mover, BlackBerry introduced Push Mail service to the market by publishing the very first smartphone which is able to retrieve latest emails from the server autonomously. As a Late-comer, Apple launched their first smart phone shocked the market with its appearance, user interface, and other unique features. In this study, we employ Lotka-Volterra model to analyze the competitive operational relations between Apple and BlackBerry, in worldwide and North America smartphone markets. Also, we employ Bass model to estimate and predict and analyze which models, Lotka-Volterra model or Bass model, are more accurate. The estimation parameter result shows that in the world wide smartphone market, Apple and BlackBerry are in Predator-Prey relationship. But in North America smartphone market, these two companies are in the Amensalism relationship. The estimated results also indicate that, in the worldwide and North America markets, two companies will reach a stable equilibrium.