Lotka-Volterra模型於台灣輪胎製造產業營收之應用分析

Abstract

本研究係以Lotka-Volterra模型探討台灣輪胎製造產業營收應用，比較兩家台資輪胎製造業發展策略，探討正新輪胎以及建大輪胎彼此競合關係。本研究係以輪胎製造業之營業收入來測試正新輪胎以及建大輪胎是否存在著競爭或獵食與獵物者的關係，並且對於正新輪胎以及建大輪胎預測未來關係是否存在著均衡，並且除了本研究所提出以Lotka-Volterra模型進行預測之外，還會運用Bass模型進行預測，來比較何者較能精確的預測台灣輪胎產業的消長。 依兩家輪胎製造廠營業收入的資料所探討的研究結果顯示來看，正新輪胎會幫助建大輪胎成長，但是建大輪胎對正新輪胎的成長則沒有影響。其原因可能為正新輪胎積極佈局海外市場前往中國及其他國家設廠，並建立品牌知名度與顧客信任感而取得先機，並投入大量資金來進行研發技術及產品性能，造就該輪胎在市場的口碑與品牌信賴度，正新輪胎就像是類似Myerson (1991) 先行者優勢及Robert（1972）雁行理論的策略，在技術及市場上略佔優勢同時握有學習曲線與規模經驗等優勢；建大輪胎以一個後進者的角色來跟進，依照正新海外布局的經驗與投資策略，不必從頭開始，可減少試誤成本減低進入其他國家市場的門檻與挑戰，故正新輪胎在市場上的經驗有利於建大輪胎進入新興市場，但因正新為先行者角色且已發展為領先者地位，故此建大輪胎所發展的策略則對正新輪胎沒有幫助。本研究均衡分析的結果顯示在營業收入方面，正新輪胎和建大輪胎會收斂到10,953,364及2,698,975(千元)，正新輪胎的均衡解約為建大輪胎的四倍，說明正新輪胎和建大輪胎在長期競合下，將會達到穩定均衡的狀態。精確度分析的結果顯示本研究採用Lotka-Volterra模型相較準確度會比Bass模型準確度來得精確。

This study applies Lotka-Volterra Model to investigate the competition relation between two major tire manufacturers in Taiwan, Cheng Shin Rubber Ind. Co., Ltd. (CST), and Kenda Rubber Ind., Co., Ltd. (KENDA). By comparing the revenue performance and development strategies, the competitive and cooperative relation between CST and KENDA is verified and the equilibrium relation is predicted. Bass Model is employed in this study as well in order to evaluate the accuracy of prediction with Lotka-Volterra Model for the tire industry in Taiwan. The result shows that the revenue growth of CST benefits KENDA, however, KENDA has no influence on CST. The possible reason is that CST plays a pioneer in tire industry. CST aggrandized itself by investing overseas, including R&D and product enhancement. Thus, CST established its brand awareness and customer confidence firstly. KENDA, as a follower, made less effort than CST. KENDA benefited from CST’s experience on layout arrangement and investment strategy and involved in emerging market with less cost on try and error or other barriers.In the equilibrium analysis, the revenue will be convergent to NTD$10,953,364,000 and NTD$2,698,975,000 for CST and KENDA. This result implies that in long-run, CST and KENDA will have stable equilibrium relation. The result also presents that Lotka-Volterra model has better prediction ability than Bass model.