台灣DRAM產業與景氣循環之關聯性分析

Abstract

本研究以2000年至2014年台灣DRAM產業公司為研究對象，檢視過去至今國際與台灣DRAM公司的策略聯盟及併購活動等事件發展過程，並簡述其產業特性及現今全球產能分布，進一步從台灣DRAM公司財務分析中探討過去DRAM產業與國內經濟景氣循環之關聯性，實證結果顯示：

1. 金融風暴前：國內景氣循環與DRAM產業表現呈正相關，DRAM產業受政府扶植且銀行優惠借款的情形下，常於產業高峰時提高借款增設產能；景氣差時，因高度舉債影響，營運風險也相對提升，為導致力晶與茂德2008年後財務危機之主要因素。 2. 金融風暴後：國內景氣循環與DRAM產業表現仍呈正相關，但產業營運狀況已產生結構性轉變，因智慧型裝置需求快速成長，高容量記憶體需求亦逐漸增加，對於標準型DRAM製程與良率研發上的資本支出將更為謹慎，而因近年轉虧為盈的成果，資本支出之來源亦從借款轉移至盈餘。

This paper subjects are the Taiwan DRAM listed companies from 2000 to 2014. The study will review the strategic alliance and acquisition activities of the international and domestic DRAM companies from the past, and state the character and present global revenue breakdown of the DRAM industry. Further we will conduct the correlation coefficient analysis between Taiwan DRAM industry and business cycle after discussing the financial analysis of the DRAM companies. The empirical results are as follows： 1. Before the financial crisis of 2007-2008: there were positive correlation between domestic business cycle and DRAM industry performance. In favor of government and bank subsidy policy, the large debt with the large capital expenditure during DRAM industry peak enhanced the company operation risk when facing the trough, which caused Powerchip and ProMos’ financial crisis. 2. After the financial crisis of 2007-2008: there were still positive correlation between domestic business cycle and DRAM industry performance. But the companies were more careful about the capital expenditure efficiency with the increasing mobile device demand, which was apparently different from the past. And the source of capital exchanged from debt to retained earnings.