台灣自來水水表更換時間之預測模型

Abstract

台灣每年的降雨量充沛，但由於地狹人稠、山坡陡峭且雨勢集中，導致缺水問題嚴重。如何不浪費有限的水資源就成為目前政府一個重要的課題。有效控管水資源的開發、節約用水及漏水防治等都是解決水資源問題的方法，其中降低水表漏水量是提升用水量的一個有效方法。水表漏水量受到許多因素影響，其中一項就是受到水表準確度的影響，若自來水公司能夠掌握水表的狀態，有效控管性能較差的水表，就能有效降低漏水量。台灣水表之有效期限通常為八年，但因水表準確度受到許多因素影響，若水表更換的時間點不適當，不僅漏水量會增加，浪費水資源，也因收不到水費而造成自來水公司虧損。因此，本研究之主要目的是找出影響水表準確度之重要因素，然後根據這些因素將自來水用戶資料分群，再探討影響水表準確度較差的子群之因素組合；接著建立水表最佳更換時間之預測模型。本研究首先利用集群分析法將台灣自來水用戶用水資料作分群，以探討族群之間的特性；接著以自組性演算法(group method of data handling, GMDH)建構水表的最佳更換時機預測模型。自來水公司可依本研究之結果，有效控管水表以及適時更換水表，以降低因水表準確度之問題所造成漏水量之誤判，降低虧損進而達到不浪費水資源之目的。

Although Taiwan gets plenty of rainfall every year, the high density of the population and the steep mountain slopes, cause a serious water-shortage problem. Hence, saving the water resources becomes an important issue of Taiwanese government. Controlling the development of water resources, cut waste and prevent leakage are some solutions to the water-shortage problem. Among them, reducing the water leakage is a very effective way to conserve water. There are many factors cause water leakage. One of them is the inaccuracy of water meter. If the Water Company can effectively control the quality of water meters, the leakage problem may be reduced. Besides, the life time of meters are supposed to be about eight years. The replacing time of maters needs to be carefully examined. Because the meter are affected by several factors, the appropriate replacing timing for meters is very important. For this reason, this study aims to find out the key factors which affect the accuracy of a water meter and the prediction model of replacing time for water meter is built accordingly. First, the cluster analysis is employed to group the data, then the major characters are analyzed for each group. The prediction model of the proper time for replacing the water meter is constructed using Group Method of Data Handling. Taiwanese Water Company may adopt the result of this study to effectively reduce the water leakage and change the water meter at proper time to decrease the loss caused by inaccuracy of water meters and save the water resources.