應用賽局理論於跨國物流回復力投資策略

Abstract

隨著運輸技術的發展，廠商欲將產品外銷至其他國家以爭取最大獲利須仰賴跨國物流系統進行產品的運輸與配送，若物流系統發生意外事故而導致供貨中斷容易對業者造成巨大的損失，且供應鏈具有連鎖反應之特性，各業者對於意外事故的應變能力會影響供應鏈上其他業者的獲利，物流合作夥伴是否具備良好的事故回復力遂成為各業者的重要考慮因素。

本研究擬以完全資訊的Stackelberg動態賽局概念建構跨國物流回復力投資動態賽局模式，參賽者依照決策優先順序分別為供應商、本國物流服務商、他國物流服務商，本研究擬定各參賽者在考慮他國端可能發生意外事故的情境下的回復力投資成本函數，並且假設各參賽者均以成本極小化為目標進行決策，藉由分析各參數對賽局均衡結果的影響情形以探討各參賽者在不同情境下的投資策略，最後以我國水果產品外銷至日本與中國大陸的案例進行個案探討。分析結果顯示供應商在外銷產品數量越大、事故賠償規則越嚴苛、物流服務商的投資效果越良好、產品內外銷利潤差距越小的情況下，供應商均衡結果傾向降低物流費用支出以節省成本；物流服務商在產品數量越大、每單位貨品物流費用越高、事故賠償規則越嚴苛、他國端意外事故機率越高的情境下，物流服務商均衡結果傾向增加回復力投資，此外本國與他國物流服務商的回復力投資的效果的大小與交互關係是影響物流服務商投資均衡結果的重要決定因素。

With the development of the transportation technology, manufacturers need the international logistics systems to export products for maximizing the profit. If the accident happened, the disruption of supply chain is likely to cause huge losses. The coping and response abilities of supply chain members impact the benefits of other members due to the interdependency. In order to minimize the losses, company managers may consider whether their logistics partners have great resilience.

This study applies the Stackelberg game with perfect information to construct a dynamic game and analyze the resilience investment strategies of companies. Players includes the suppliers, domestic logistics operator, along with oversea logistics operator. This study constructs the resilience investment cost function of each player considering the logistics accident which happens in the foreign site. The study assumes that minimizing the total cost is the goal for each player in decision making and applies the backward induction to assess the equilibrium. The low-temperature supply chain of fruit from Taiwan to Japan and China is employed as the empirical case. The results show that the supplier tends to reduce logistics expenses if there exists a larger number of products, more stringent accident compensation rules, the stronger investment effect of logistics service provider, or the smaller gap between the profits of export and domestic sales. Moreover, the larger number of products, the higher logistics expenses paid by the supplier, the more stringent accident compensation rules, and the higher risk of accident in the foreign site, make logistics service providers increase their resilience investment to prevent additional costs caused by supply chain failure.