單期季節性商品之需求預測投資預算－使用貝氏估計法

Abstract

如何正確地預測並滿足顧客的需求，爲企業生存之根本。而需求預測的精確度通常和投資在預測上的人力及金錢成正相關。本文經由模型推導，探討使用貝氏估計法之單期季節性商品生産系統（報童問題）應如何訂定生産計劃及需求預測投資預算。研究發現需求預測在以下情況中十分重要：(1)當單位售價、或單位存貨處理成本、或單位商譽損失成本較大時，(2)當單位生産成本在某適當值時，(3)不生産前置成本較小時。

How to accurately predict and satisfy customer needs is very important for a company to survive. In general, the precision of demand forecasting is closely relative to the budget invested in forecasting. In this paper, we develop a single-product and single-period model (a newsboy model) with Bayesian approach to study how the decision-maker in a seasonal goods production system to determine the production quantity and budget invested in demand forecasting. We find that when unit selling price, unit inventory disposal cost, or unit shortage cost is larger, or when unit production cost is appropriate, or when production setup cost is smaller, demand forecasting becomes more important.