財稅差異對分析師預測誤差及預測離散性之影響

Abstract

先前文獻指出財稅差異與企業的租稅規劃、盈餘管理有關聯，本研究的目的在於檢視財務分析師是否能有效將企業財稅差異的資訊反應在未來盈餘的預測上。實證結果顯示，企業的財稅差異會使得分析師盈餘預測誤差擴大，而各個分析師之間的預測分歧度也會愈高，顯示出台灣分析師並未將企業的財稅差異完全考量至其盈餘的預測中。此外，進一步區分負向預測誤差(過於樂觀預測)及正向預測誤差(過於悲觀預測)後，實證結果顯示，我國分析師對於財稅差異大的企業會發布過於樂觀的盈餘預測。最後，在永久性及暫時性財稅差異上，實證結果顯示，相較於暫時性財稅差異，我國的分析師明顯的低估了企業永久性財稅差異背後的租稅管理意涵，以致於發布過度樂觀的盈餘預測，而各個分析師之間對同一公司的預測分歧度也相對較大。

Recent research demonstrates that corporate book-tax differences (BTDs) are associated with tax planning and earnings management activities. This study aims to investigate whether or not the financial analysts use BTD information to form efficient earnings expectations. The empirical results reveal that analysts’ forecasts of future earnings display greater forecast errors and dispersion in firm-years with higher BTDs, implying that analysts in Taiwan fail to fully incorporate BTD-related information into their forecasts. Besides, this study partitions the full sample into two subsamples on the basis of the negative (optimistic) and positive (pessimistic) forecast errors, and the results show that analysts display overoptimistic for firms with greater BTDs under the negative forecast errors subsample. Finally, after discriminating permanent and temporary BTDs, compared to temporary BTD, the results show that permanent BTD information does not appear to be fully reflected in analysts’ forecasts, and thus leads to predictable forecast errors and dispersion.