標題: Elucidating the consumption and CO2 emissions of fossil fuels and low-carbon energy in the United States using Lotka-Volterra models
作者: Tsai, Bi-Huei
Chang, Chih-Jen
Chang, Chun-Hsien
交大名義發表
管理科學系
National Chiao Tung University
Department of Management Science
關鍵字: Energy consumption;Low-carbon energy;Fossil fuels;CO2 emissions;Lotka-Volterra model
公開日期: 1-Apr-2016
摘要: By using the Lotka-Volterra model, this work examines for the first time the feasibility of using low carbon energy to reduce fossil fuel consumption in the United States and, ultimately, to decrease CO2 emissions. The research sample in this work consists of data on energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the United States. Parameter estimation results reveal that although the consumption of low-carbon energy increases the consumption of fossil fuels, the latter does not affect the former. Low-carbon energy usage, including nuclear energy and solar photovoltaic power, increases fossil fuel consumption because the entire lifetime of a nuclear or solar energy facility, from the construction of electricity plants to decommissioning, consumes tremendous amounts of fossil fuels. This result verifies the infeasibility of low-carbon energy to replace fossil fuels under the current mining technology, electricity generation skills and governmental policy in the United States and explains why the United States refused to become a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol. Equilibrium analysis results indicate that the annual consumption of fossil fuels will ultimately exceed that of low-carbon energy by 461%. Since our proposed Lotka-Volterra model accurately predicts the consumption and CO2 emission of different energy sources, this work contributes to the energy policies. (c) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.12.045
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/133665
ISSN: 0360-5442
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.12.045
期刊: ENERGY
Volume: 100
起始頁: 416
結束頁: 424
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