標題: A Dynamic Competition Simulation for Worldwide Big-size TV Market Using Lotka-Volterra Model
作者: Chen, Wu-Tung Terry
Li, Yiming
Hung, Chih-Young
科技管理研究所
Institute of Management of Technology
關鍵字: Lotka-Volterra model;product competition;simulation and forecast
公開日期: 2009
摘要: Technological innovation is characterized by the substitution of new technologies for full-fledged ones in the development of new products, processes and techniques. Global TV market is seeing a price down-spiral for FPD(Flat Panel Display) -TVs, replacement of CRT by LCD, and consumer's defection to larger screen. The LCD-TV market started in Japan from 2003 and took off globally from 2005. LCD panel production is moving toward larger sizes. In the 35"-39" size market, the price/performance ratio of LCD-TV is better than that of PDP. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the demand function of worldwide big-size (35"-39") TVs including LCD and PDP with an explicit consideration of market competition. The demand function was estimated using Lotka-Volterra model, a famous competitive diffusion model. The results exhibit a kind of predator-prey relationship, in which the PDP market was hunted by LCD product. In addition, the coefficients of difference equations of Lotka-Volterra model in this analysis are also used to forecast the future market of the big-size LCD and PDP.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11536/13568
ISBN: 978-0-7354-0685-8
ISSN: 0094-243X
期刊: COMPUTATIONAL METHODS IN SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, VOL 2: ADVANCES IN COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE
Volume: 1148
起始頁: 509
結束頁: 513
顯示於類別:會議論文