影響亞歐線貨櫃航運運價因素之分析

Abstract

貨櫃航運市場隨著世界各國日益重視反壟斷的趨勢之下而漸趨競爭，船公司無法像過去一般討論未來營業計劃與訂定參考運價及附加費，導致運價波動幅度大幅上升，甚至常出現超漲與超跌之狀況。而貨櫃航運經營模式通常為定期航線，其艙位具有不可儲存性，面對現今運價漲跌幅劇烈的環境，如何確保報價符合市場趨勢，使營收最大化已是越來越重要，卻也越來越困難之課題。 本文擬從過去文獻不曾討論過之角度來探討影響貨櫃航運運價之因素，並試圖利用兩階段最小平方法建立一可靠之模型來預測未來運價走勢。盼其結果不僅有助於貨櫃公司增裕營收，也能夠替貿易商、製造商、以及第三方物流提供一個可靠的成本預測模型。

The container shipping market has been being more and more competitive after countries all over the world focused more than before on anti-competition and anti-cartel. Unlike what container shipping companies did in the past, companies in this industry are not able to discuss future business plan, fix future rate level, and set unified surcharges. The repeal of freight conference has resulted in drastic rate fluctuation, even overreaction. Because the service frequency in container shipping market is always, at least, weekly, the capacity is not storable. With above mentioned conditions, how to maximize the income has been a more and more important but more and more difficult issue. This article aims to explore the influenced factors of ocean freight level from a new perspective, and establish a reliable model by apply 2-staged least squared method to predict the trend of freight rates. It may not only help the shipping companies to increase their revenue but also provide the merchants, manufacturers, and third party logistics companies a reliable cost model.