亞太地區發展對台灣國際商港運量之影響分析

Abstract

在全球貿易與經濟自由化的洪流下，各國間貿易更趨頻繁，而海洋運輸在各國間貿易有不可或缺的地位。近年全球海運貨運量大致為成長的趨勢，惟臺灣海運貨運量成長幅度低於世界運量成長幅度，致使我國港口於全世界之排名不若過去理想。計量經濟模式可用以探究影響我國近年海運貨運量之主因，並解析究竟是整體貨運需求量減少、競爭港口之興起造成高雄港轉口貨量減少、亦或是許多綜合因素的結果。因此，本研究先蒐集國內外海運相關文獻，彙整其所使用之模式與變數，並蒐集國內外經貿、產業、港口屬性和相關海運貨運量資料，最後配合國內有限的資料，建構港口運量需求模式。 回顧過去海運相關文獻發現，貨運需求量主要受到整體經濟環境影響，解釋變數則多使用國內生產毛額、工業生產指數、國民生產毛額等總體經濟指標。港口競爭方面，國內文獻受限於資料的可及性與可靠度，多為質化之研究；國外多使用羅吉特模式探討港口選擇行為，分析不同因素對港口需求之影響程度，以增加港埠間的競爭，尤其是區域內港埠的競爭。 由於貨運需求量可能受到總體經濟、產業結構以及港口競爭因素的影響，本研究將需求與競爭因素一併考慮在內，以巢式羅吉特模式之架構建立貨運需求模式。由模式的校估結果解釋近年高雄港轉運量變化的原因，在2001至2007年臺灣高雄港之貨運需求量成長主要是由需求因素帶動，然而到了2007至2013年貨運需求量成長則是因競爭因素的提升。 更進一步分析重要影響因素，首先在貨運需求因素中，製造業產值和居民最終消費金額為重要影響因素，其中以中國大陸製造業發展對於高雄港轉口運量提升有重要的貢獻。最後，在競爭因素中，港口裝卸成本的變化為主要影響高雄港轉口運量之重要因素。

In the trend of global trades and economic liberalization, frequencies of trades between countries have increased. Maritime transportation plays an important role in international trades. However, the maritime freight volume of Taiwan had lower growth rate than that of the world in the past few years. As a result, the rankings of Taiwan ports dropped. Econometric models can be used to investigate the factors affect maritime freight volume of Taiwan, and to decompose the reasons of the freight volume reductions. This study reviewed and summarized the related literature, focusing on those studies using econometric models, on the topics of maritime freight volume forecasting, and port competition. Moreover, this study constructs a demand model, given the current data limitations. Regarding maritime freight volume forecasting, the most common explanatory variables involve macroeconomics factors, such as, gross domestic product, industrial production index, and gross national product. Most domestic literature on port competition uses qualitative approaches due to the limitations of data accessibility and liability. In foreign literature, logit models are generally used for modeling port competition in order to heighten competitions among ports, regional ports especially. While freight volume are probably determined by macroeconomics factors, industrial structures, or port competition. This study constructs the freight demand model of nested logit structure that jointly considers the demand and competitive factors. Finally, quantifying and explaining the impact of important factors on transshipmet of Kaohsiung port. From the estimation results the Kaohsiung port volume growth was mainly driven by demand factors from 2001 to 2007, but was mainly driven by competitive factors form 2007 to 2013. This study stated further that the manufacturing output and household final consumption expenditure are the important demand factors. In addition, the development of China’s manufacturing industry have the great positive impact on the volume of container transshipment in Taiwan. Finally, the port handling costs are also the important factors causing traffic change.