運用模糊德菲法與技術成熟度分析於研究機構研發計畫的規劃-以紡織產業綜合研究所為例

Abstract

本研究係提出一套適合研究機構使用的研發規劃技術地圖的框架。主要包括四個階段：辨識策略領域、技術評估與選擇、技術組合規劃、及提出開發計畫。第一階段係利用STEEP/SWOT工具來找出研究機構五大策略領域；第二階段係經由文獻搜尋與業界專家諮詢，將五大策略領域展開為101項的技術項目，利用模糊德菲法，根據兩項準則：(1)具未來發展潛力；(2)台灣具有優勢，篩選出一些具專家共識的34項技術項目。第三階段係運用技術組合規劃(TPP)，將34項技術項目依據他們個別產業效益與風險性的大小，分別放置於適當的區塊中，選擇中度產業效益與動風險的區塊的項目，規劃作為研提政府計畫目標。第四階段，採用英國Phaal 教授T-Plan工具，草擬未來技術地圖，連結市場需求、產品功能與技術方案；從技術方案中，引用美國NASA的技術成熟度(TRL)分析，找出這些技術方案的關鍵技術元素(CTE)，定義他們的TRL，並研擬技術改善方案(TMP)，作為關鍵技術缺口與未來努力空間研發計畫提案的重要參考依據。 本論文以紡織產業綜合研究所實際案例，探討研提2017-2020四年科專計畫技術地圖規劃的步驟與流程，以驗證本論文研究研發規劃流程的適用性。

This study proposes an R&D technology roadmapping (TRM) process, which consists of four phases: Identification of Strategic Areas, Technology Assessment and Selection, Technology Portfolio Planning (TPP) and Generation of Development Plan. The first phase was to use the STEEP (Social, Technology, Economic, Ecological, Political)/SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat) tool to find five Strategic Areas (SA) for a research organization. The second phase was to decompose the five strategic areas into 101 technology items through literature survey and industry consultation. A fuzzy Delphi method was utilized to select 34 items which have reached the consensus from industrial experts based on two major factors: (a) future potential; (b) Taiwan advantage. The third phase was to employ strategy map in TPP model to cluster the technology items located in the medium-risk and medium-impact zone, which were considered as the potential topics to establish the main streams of KTDP “Advanced Functional Fibers and Textiles” for the institute. The last phase was to draw up a TRM framework along the timeframe, adopting Phaal T-Plan tool, to link market needs, product functions, and technology solutions for the program. Furthermore, the TRL adopted from NASA, were used to find their Critical Technology Elements (CTEs) and TRLs of the technology elements, where the research efforts should be dedicated to and the research resources should be allocated. Thus, a technology maturity plan (TMP) should be put forward to solve the problems of key technological gaps that CTEs have been identified. A case study was applied at the Taiwan Textile Research Institute (TTRI) to validate the process by aligning with their strategic goal, and a comprehensive R&D planning roadmap suitable for the TTRI was presented from 2017 to 2020.