房地合一稅制改革對臺灣不動產市場的影響評估

Abstract

房地合一稅制改革，實為我國不動產稅制的重大變革，本研究利用資料分析法及事件研究法探討在2015年6月5日立法院三讀通過所得稅法修正案前後，對臺灣不動產市場產生的影響及上市櫃營建公司是否有累積異常報酬率。

研究結果顯示，一、透過投資、生產及交易層面的房地產景氣指標觀之，整體房地產景氣於此次稅制改革時間裡，皆呈現衰退的情形，尤其以北部都會區最為明顯；二、在累積異常報酬率方面，本研究所選的四個事件日中，除事件期間2(2015年1月30日財政部提出之輕稅方案)外，上市櫃營建公司之股價皆產生顯著的負向累積異常報酬率。

Integrated Housing and Land Taxation, which Legislative Yuan passed on June 5, 2015, is a major change to the real estate tax system of our country. This study adopts data analysis and event study to discuss the taxation had effect on Taiwan real estate markets and cumulative abnormal returns to the listed construction companies (trade in SEC or OTC).

The results show that, one, through the real estate prosperity index investment, production and trading levels of view, the real estate boom in the overall tax reform period, are presenting the case of a recession, particularly in the northern part of the metropolitan area; Second, the study selected the four events, except during the event 2 (January 30, 2015 the Ministry of Finance of the light tax program), the listed construction company's stock price are generating significant negative cumulative abnormal return.