核能相依國之核能及化石能源消耗量、實質 GDP 和碳 排放量之因果關係

Abstract

本研究探討能源（核能和化石燃料消耗量）、經濟（實質GDP）和環境（二氧化碳排放量）之間的動態因果關係，研究對象是根據2015年的世界核能使用狀況加以排名作挑選，挑選前六個核能相依國並且挑選已開發國家以及資料齊全之國家，分別為法國、比利時、芬蘭、韓國、瑞士和瑞典，並且放入台灣，進一步分析目前台灣和核能相依國間差異性。 將核能相依國區分為歐盟和亞洲，兩個地區主要相同的因果關係有碳排放對核能的長短期因果關係、化石燃料對核能的短期因果關係以及雙向的長期因果關係，較明顯不同的地方為碳排放和化石燃料之因果關係。核能相依國較多數國家有替代能源之因果關係以及核能和碳排放之因果關係。台灣化石燃料對核能有長期因果，實質GDP對核能有長短期因果，短期的化石燃料對碳排放有顯著同向的因果關係。 總體而言，台灣在能源政策制定上可以促進核電廠的建立和增加核能消費來推動實質GDP的成長與減少二氧化碳的排放，同時控制化石燃料在電力結構上的比例，降低對化石燃料的依賴，減少過多從中排放的二氧化碳，並發展相關的替代能源以及核能技術。

This study explores the dynamic causal relationship among Energy (nuclear and fossil fuel consumption), Economic (real GDP) and Environment (carbon dioxide emissions), which is based on the percentage of nuclear generation in the world in 2015, Six countries with nuclear-dependent countries and excluding communist countries, as well as countries with incomplete data, namely France, Belgium, Finland, Korea, Switzerland and Sweden. Further, this study analyzes Taiwan’s current situation and compare the differences with nuclear-dependent countries. The nuclear-dependent countries are divided into the EU and Asia, the two regions are mainly the same causal relationship between carbon emissions on the long-term causal relationship between nuclear energy, fossil fuels on short-term causal relationship between nuclear energy and two-way long-term causal relationship, the more obvious Carbon and fossil fuels. Nuclear-dependent countries have a causal relationship between alternative energy sources and nuclear and carbon emissions. Taiwan's fossil fuels have long-term consequences for nuclear energy. Substantial GDP has long-term causal effects on nuclear energy. Short-term fossil fuels have significant causal relationships with carbon emissions. In general, Taiwan's energy policy development can promote the establishment of nuclear power plants and increase nuclear energy consumption to promote real GDP growth and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, while controlling the proportion of fossil fuels in the power structure, reducing dependence on fossil fuels, reduce excess emissions from carbon dioxide, and develop relevant alternative energy and nuclear energy technologies.