台灣電商產業與超商產業之互動關係

Abstract

本研究利用Lotka-Volterra模組分析台灣超商與電商兩產業的競爭關係，研究數據取自於台灣經濟部統計處之公開資訊，並先應用Hodrick-Prescott filter將原始的營收數據進行濾波處理，再進一步分析產業的競爭關係。從研究結果能發現此方法較過去原始的Lotka-Volterra模組擁有更加貼近產業真實現況的描述能力，同時具備更準確的預測能力。超商與電商兩產業競爭關係的研究結果呈現為互利的合作關係，這代表兩產業皆能成為彼此成長的動力來源，同時利用Jacobian Matrix進行分析，結果顯示超商與電商產業的營收仍會持續增長直到進入均衡狀態，其中營收約為目前產業營收的兩倍量。除此之外，利用本研究Lotka-Volterra模組結果觀察兩產業近五年每月營收成長的趨勢，能發現到兩產業截然不同的市場環境，目前超商產業正處在高度內在競爭的環境，反觀電商產業則正處於蓬勃發展的成長時期，根據兩產業不同的市場環境，給予不同面向的布局策略與建議。

In this study, we use the Lotka-Volterra model based on revenue data to analyze the competitive relationship between e-commerce and convenience store industries in Taiwan. The revenue data are taken from the public database of the Statistics Department of Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs. We first remove the cyclic signal from raw revenue data by the Hodrick-Prescott filter and obtain the trend revenue data, which is taken as input to the Lotka-Volterra model. Experiment results indicate that the Lotka-Volterra model based on trend revenue data significantly outperforms that based on raw revenue data. Further experiments yield the following findings. First, the competition between the two industries is mutualism, which implies that the two industries are mutually the driving forces of each other's growth and they will continue to grow until reach an equilibrium state. Second, the two industries keep growing, which both have a positive growth rate. Yet, the growth rate of the convenient store industry is decreasing while that of the e-commerce industry is increasing. This finding may be due that convenient store industry, with a longer history, becomes a more mature industry; therefore, its internal competition (a negative impact to revenue) becomes more serious.