台灣兩大晶圓代工廠之競爭關係分析

Abstract

本研究旨在應用Lotka-Volterra模型找出台灣兩大晶圓代工公司的互動關係，此議題過去雖已有學者研究，本研究特色是將營收數據先透過Hodrick–Prescott filter，濾除景氣波動信號，以營收的趨勢信號當成Lotka-Volterra模型的輸入，再進行互動關係分析。實驗結果顯示，本研究以濾波後的趨勢信號當輸入，與過去研究以原始營收數據為輸入相比，預測能力顯著較佳。本研究進而以濾波後模型分析兩晶圓代工廠（X-公司vs Y-公司）的互動關係。實驗結果有三發現，第一、X-公司和Y-公司都會自我成長，此意指晶圓代工是成長產業。第二、領導廠商X-公司（約市佔率60%）的內部競爭會帶來營收增加，此意旨X-公司的關鍵客戶是頂級IC設計公司，這些公司的競爭本質是創新競爭，創新造成需求增加，因此T-公司營收會增加。 Y-公司（約市佔率10%）的內部競爭會帶來營收減少，此意旨Y-公司的關鍵客戶是中級IC設計公司，這些公司的競爭本質是價格競爭，此等競爭會造成價格下跌，因此Y-公司營收會減少。第三、兩公司的競爭關係是Y-公司獵捕X-公司，此意指隨著產品的成熟，客戶為了降低成本會將訂單從X-公司轉向Y-公司。

This research attempts to use the Lotka-Volterra model to analyze the interaction relationships between two semiconductor foundry companies in Taiwan. Prior studies used raw revenue data as input to the Lotka-Volterra model. This research is unique in proposing to take the filtered revenue data as input to the Lotka-Volterra model. The filtered revenue data denotes the signal obtained by removing the cyclic signal from the raw revenue data. Experiment results reveal that the proposed approach significantly outperforms the prior approach in terms of forecasting accuracy. The proposed approach is used to investigate the interaction relationship between the foundry companies, which yields the following findings. First, the two companies (X-company and Y-company) are both self-growing, which implies that semiconductor foundry is a growing industry. Second, the internal interactions among X-company’s customers have a positive impact to X-company, due to innovation competition among its customers. The internal interactions among Y-company’s customers have a negative impact to X-company, due to cost competition among its customers. Third, mature products shall migrate from X-company to Y-company due to the driven of cost competition.