标题: 以贝氏信赖网路进行台湾电脑产业的策略分析及随机模拟
Using Bayesian Belief Network to Perform Strategic Analysis and Stochastic Simulation for Taiwanese Computer Industry
作者: 邓宇廷
王志轩
TENG,Yu-Ting
工业工程与管理系所
关键字: 贝氏信赖网路;台湾电脑产业;价值链;策略分析;模拟;Bayesian Belief Network;Taiwanese Computer Industry;Value Chain;Strategic Analysis;Simulation
公开日期: 2017
摘要: 目前全球的电脑产业正面临着许多机会与挑战,像是全球PC电脑需求下降、各国纷纷提出政策试图将制造业拉回国内生产或是客户要求客制化等许多议题,而电脑产业中厂商发展的产品及服务不同,故本研究将电脑产业分为品牌电脑商、工业电脑商和代工电脑商三个子产业,又因台湾在三个子产业领域中都有发展良好且具有代表性的公司,故本研究以台湾三个子产业领域中的厂商为样本进行分析。
本研究透过分类与回归树(CART)找出三个子产业的重要变数,分析三个子产业价值链的不同之处,并利用贝氏信赖网路量化出变数之间互相影响的强度,最后利用模拟说明当自变数变动比自变数没有变动时对依变数的机率影响程度,此举可让企业经营者明确的知道当他下决策时,对企业营利的确切影响为何。
Now, the global computer industry is facing many opportunities and challenges, such as the reduced demand of PC computers, country’s proposed policies, customized products and so on. Due to the computer industry manufacturers develop different way in their products and services, this study divided computer industry into computer brands, industrial computers and computer foundry of three sub-industries. Taiwan has
well-developed and representative company, so we use Taiwan's manufacturers for the sample analysis.
First, the study use CART (classification and regression tree) method to find out the important variables of the three sub-industries. Next, the study analyze the differences between the three sub-industry value chains. Third, the study use the bayesian belief network to quantify the strength between the variables. Finally, the study use the simulation to explain the independent variable impact on the dependent variable, so that business operators can clearly know what will happen on corporate profits when he made the decision.
URI: http://etd.lib.nctu.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT070453318
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/140956
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