台灣汽車零組件產業之分析

Abstract

作為數十年來全球經濟指標重要一環且市場仍繼續擴張的汽車產業，近年開始經歷重大的改變，其中最主要係源自科技領域發展下的前所未有衝擊，諸如電動車及自動駕駛車技術。雖上述技術目前尚未完全成熟。但許多分析師和產業報告皆指出，這些科技發展趨勢將形成無可避免的破壞式創新。在不久的將來亦將對已發展超過一世紀，但自產業發展初期以來至今幾乎從無重大轉變的汽車產業現有成員產生重大影響。因此，本研究旨在分析現行總體經濟及各種環境因素後，預測其可能對台灣經濟重要出口指標之一的台灣汽車零配件製造業可能造成之影響，有鑑於此，本研究將運用兩個分析工具，首先以ESTEMPLE分析法分析總體經濟環境，然後再以波特五力分析模型進一步分析台灣汽車零配件製造業的產業結構。並揭示在自動駕駛汽車發展趨勢下，可能造成汽車零組件需求減少所帶來的威脅，即使現今汽車零組件之市場需求及未來展望仍呈現穩定之增長趨勢。本研究建議，此時對台灣汽車零配件製造業之關重要的是要嚴加密切看管這些科技技術之後續發展，同時並在未來的新市場中尋求機會藉以保持競爭力。

While being one of the biggest economic sectors for decades and yet increasing market size, the automobile industry has started to experience major changes, mostly coming from the technology side more than ever such as electric and self-driving vehicles. While the technologies are not mature yet, many analysts and industry reports considered these trends to be disruptive and inevitable. Thus, they will have strong impacts on existing industry players in the near future which have not changed for more than a century since the beginning of the industry. Therefore, this study aims at investigating macroeconomic and environmental factors to forecast their possible impacts, particularly on the auto spare parts manufacturing industry in Taiwan, one of the major exporting sectors. For the purpose, this study employs two analyses, ESTEMPLE for the macroeconomic environments and then Porter’s Five Force analysis of industry structure. The analyses reveal the threat of reducing demand for auto spare parts from the development of self-driving cars, while the demand for auto accessories appears to grow steadily. Nevertheless, it can be important for Taiwanese auto spare parts manufacturers to monitor those technologies closely while looking for opportunities to enter new market to stay competitive.