能力抑或機運:來自美國職棒的實證

Abstract

現實生活中大部分的活動，從商業活動到運動比賽都同時被運氣以及實力所影響。了解運氣和實力在這些活動中所扮演的角色，及應該用什麼樣的態度及策略來面對他們，變成為取得成功的重要課題。本研究以美國職業棒球大聯盟資料作為實證，從資料庫介紹和相關應用以及未來展望，到探討那些因素會在最後關頭影響比賽發展，最後到討論我們應該在最後關頭採取什麼樣的策略。實證結果發現每次打席第一球的結果至關重要，有實力的打者應採更主動的策略多揮擊第一球，而實力較差的打者則應等候機會。

Most of the activities in real life, from business to sports competitions are affected by both luck and strength. Understand the role of luck and strength in these activities, and what kind of attitude and strategy should be used to face them, become an important issue for success. This study takes the American Major League Baseball data as an empirical, from the database introduction and related applications and future prospects, to explore those factors that will affect the development of the game at the last minute, and finally to discuss what strategies we should take at the last minute. The empirical results show that the results of the first ball of each play is essential, the hitter with skill should take a more active strategy to hit more first ball, and the hitter with lower skill should wait for the opportunity.