多世代滲透模型運用在多類別智慧型手機

Abstract

“這支手機已經顛覆了手機” 時代雜誌。 2008 年蘋果推出第一支擁有整合 iTune, 擁有 70000 個 Apps 的 App Store 的智慧 型手機 iPhone，簡約與人性化設計橫掃全球，這個破壞式創新開啟了新的手機類別。 有利可圖伴隨而來的是新的廠商的加入，Samsung 也在同年度推行 Galaxy S 來迎擊這 個市場。在台灣這個兩千三百萬人口有 65%的人有擁有智慧型手機的市場下(資策會, 2014)，我們利用了改良式滲透模型，加入參數跨品牌的溝通，經過非線性最小平方法 分析發現 iPhone 在 Galaxy S 加入下不影響其滲透過程，並且 iPhone 主要還是靠著 WOM(Word-of-Mouth)力量下滲透。另外，我們發現兩者在彼此競爭的情況下，卻仍然 保有自己的市場潛量並開發自己的客源。

“The phone that has changed phones forever” Time Magazine Apple launched the first smart phone which integrated iTunes, 70000 Apps in App Store in 2008. Simple and humanize design pops the world. This disruptive innovation open a new category in hand carrier. Benefits accompany with new entrant into market. Samsung also launched their Galaxy S to hit the market in the same year. In Taiwan, owns twenty three million people, 65% people have smart phone. We use Muller’s improved Bass Model to forecast smart phone market and add cross-brand communication parameter. After analyzing with Nonlinear Least Squared, we discover that there is no significant impact on iPhone’s diffusion when Galaxy S enter in market and iPhone major depends on power of word-of- mouth to diffuse. Additionally, although the two brand complete with each other, still they have their own market potential.