人口結構對觀光旅遊業遊客人數影響因素分析

Abstract

我國近幾十年來隨著經濟快速增長，產業也轉型成服務業為主的經濟體。觀光事業是屬於服務業中的一項重要産業，內需產業的重點之一的觀光旅遊業，也隨著政府政策支持逐步增長。不過我國逐漸邁入已開發國家的階段，與許多已開發國家所面臨的少子化及人口結構老化的現象，以內需為主的觀光產業發展勢必也會受到影響。

本研究以經濟增長及人口結構的角度，分別探討對國內主要觀光遊憩區及民營遊樂園旅遊人次的影響。結果發現，從經濟增長角度來看，名目GDP及可支配所得的增長對於國內主要觀光遊憩區旅遊人次有正面顯著的影響；對於民營遊樂區總遊客人次來說，可支配所得有正面顯著的影響，名目GDP則是顯著負面影響。人口結構角度來看，幼年及工作年齡人口增長的趨緩甚至減少對於主要觀光遊憩據點遊客人次增長沒有帶來影響；就民營遊樂區總遊客人次來說，幼年人口及老年人口增長則有顯著正向影響，幼年人口減少的確讓民營遊樂區總遊客人次有負面影響，不過老年人口增加對於民營遊樂區總遊客人次卻有正面助益，這點非常值得相關業者關注。

In recent decades, with the rapid economic growth, the industry has also transformed into a service-oriented economy. Tourism business belongs to the service industry is an important industry, one of the key domestic demand industry tourism tourism, but also with the government policy support gradually increased. However, China has gradually entered the stage of the developed countries, and many developed countries are facing the phenomenon of minority and population aging, the domestic demand-oriented tourism industry development is bound to be affected. In this study, the impact of economic growth and population structure on the major tourist and recreational areas and private amusement park tourism. It was found that, from the point of view of economic growth, the growth of GDP and disposable income had a significant positive impact on the number of tourists in the main tourist and recreational areas in Taiwan. For the total number of tourists in the private recreation area, there was a significant positive impact on the disposable income , GDP is a significant negative impact. Population structure point of view, the slowdown in the growth of the young and working age population did not even affect the growth of the number of tourists in the main tourist and recreational base. For the total number of tourists in the private recreation area, there was a significant increase in the population and the elderly population To the impact of the young population to reduce the number of private recreation area to the total number of visitors have a negative impact, but the increase in the elderly population for the private recreation area has a positive total number of visitors, which is very worthy of concern to the industry concerned.