以系統動態學為基之印尼輪胎產業非關稅貿易壁壘政策分析

Abstract

本論文提出一以系統動態學(system dynamics)為基礎的分析架構，分析印尼輪胎產業非關稅貿易壁壘(non-tariff barrier, NTB)政策，非關稅貿易壁壘以非關稅的政策機制限制產品或原物料的進出口，常為世界各國用以保護天然資源或扶植國內產業經濟發展。本論文所提出的架構描述了印尼輪胎產業的關係利害人間的動態互動，並可用以分析相關非關稅貿易壁壘政策的可能結果，所得的分析結果可作為政府擬定相關政策的參考。分析結果顯示相關保護政策的實施需經謹慎評估，設立產品特殊規格標準僅有短期效果，補貼措施會降低業者提升生產力的意願，限制進口許可需搭配國內產能投資才能奏效。

This study presents a framework to analyze the effect of non-tariff barrier (NTB) policy in Indonesian tire industry. NTB restricts imports or exports of goods or services through mechanisms other than the simple imposition of tariffs. Based on system dynamics, we develop a qualitative framework describing the dynamic behavior of the Indonesian tire industry, and the proposed framework is used to analyze the potential impact of several NTBs. The analysis results show that the NTB policies should be implemented with care. NTB based on mandatory standard is only effective in short term, and subsidy based NTB limits the local companies’ incentives to enhance the productivity. Restriction in import license is ineffective unless local companies invest in capacity. The proposed framework can serve as a decision aid to enhance the quality of the policy making.