配送中心需求預測及補貨控制之研究- 以醫療儀器製造商為例

Abstract

本研究針對醫療儀器製造商之單一配送中心進行需求預測及補貨控制。在醫療儀器產業中，高服務水準的要求時常導致製造商庫存低於最佳庫存水準。對規模較大的醫療儀器公司而言，由於缺乏可靠的業務程序蒐集需求相關資料，管理遍布世界各地配送中心的庫存水準更是一大挑戰，加上醫療儀器產業的產品多樣性及需求不確定，更使得透過合適的數學模式建立有效率的補貨計畫有其必要性。本研究透過個案研究法 (Case study approach) 分析六種不同產品三年之實際歷史資料，瞭解各個需求集合的機率分布，對需求進行預測，並利用週期性庫存審查 (Periodic inventory review) 流程有效改善醫療儀器產業的庫存管理，作為業者決策配送中心補貨量的參考。本研究亦透過實際需求資料建立模擬個案，求出各個醫療儀器產品2016年的補貨量及安全庫存量，驗證本研究所提出之方法可輔助醫療儀器產業實務上採用的需求預測、庫存管理及補貨控制系統，也可應用至個案公司以外的子公司。

This study was motivated to propose a forecasting and replenishment control model to one of the Distribution Centers in a Medical Device Manufacturer. In the Medical Device Industry, the desire for high levels of customer service often results in less than optimal inventory levels. Sometimes, big companies face challenges when have distribution centers in different parts of the world, and there is lack of a reliable business process for collecting demand data from channel. Therefore, as part of the characteristics of this industry, it is necessary to adopt suitable models to generate efficient replenishment plans due to the diversity in the portfolio of products and the constant changes in their demand. We used a Case Study Approach to analyze three years of real data for six different products, identify the probability distribution behind every demand set, and employ forecasting methods to give more precise demand estimates. Also, we proposed to determine the replenishment quantity using a Periodic Inventory Review model for the Distribution Center. We verify that the proposed approach obtained better forecasting than those given by the field sales in the Distribution Center using the historical data. Therefore, we believe the proposed approach may serve as an effective tool that supports their decision making, forecasting, and replenishment system. The case company could look for opportunities to extend them to other subsidiaries.