服務契約之運價預測與策略分析 以第三方物流服務公司為例

Abstract

「定價策略」對第三方物流公司在爭取服務契約時是攸關成敗的重要關鍵；因此在運價預測對於定價策略具有相當的重要性。各第三方物流公司在爭取服務契約時所面臨最大的挑戰不是總貨量的多寡；也不是服務涵蓋面有多大，令各家公司絞盡腦汁的便是如何制定可以贏得契約有可以保持獲利的運價。多年來相關業者多以實務經驗及簡單的成本數據作為判斷基礎，結果往往是和預期大不相同。 本研究係針對影響海、空運運價的各項主要經濟因素如油價、PMI指數及股價指數等數據；再運用C航空公司及Y海運公司2013.01~2016.08期間的運價資料，同時針對時間序列資料的特性配以各項經濟指標變數並運用單根檢定來建立向量自迴歸模型，進而進行模型診斷以檢視各變數間之因果關係，同時可分析各影響因子是否具備預測海空運運價之特性。最後將預測結果歸納彙整作為競標策略的擬定依據。 本研究主要係以建立系統化的運價預測模式及系統為目的；希望藉此能改善以往依據個人經驗法則之決策成效，同時能更精準的掌握成本資訊並提升公司的競爭力。

"Pricing strategy" is crucial to the success of the third party logistics company, especially, in earning service contracts. Also, forecasting of price serves a critical role in pricing strategy. The biggest challenge is nether the amount of the total volume of the third party logistics company faces when bidding for the service contract, nor how wide is the service coverage, so each company is how to come up with an appropriate rate not only earning the contract, but also securing profitability. The practitioners usually replies on their experience and simple rules based on cost data for decision-making over the years. Therefore, the outcomes were very different from expectations for most of cases. This study is interested with studying the main economic factors influencing the sea and air freight, such as oil prices, PMI index and stock index data with the data from C airlines and Y shipping company during the period of January of 2013 to August of 2016. We established the vector auto regression model using unit-root test considering the characteristics of time series data and various economic indicators to establish the vector auto regression model then. Also, we examined the causal model of diagnosis among the variables of the relationship, and analyzed if the impact factor is applicable in the forecasting of the freight rate of air and sea cargo. The forecasting results were summarized as the valuable reference for the pricing strategy in contract bidding. The study aims to establish systematic forecasting approaches for the freight rate of air and sea cargo to improve the quality of decision-making based on experience and/or personal judgement, and to accurately provide reference for the cost of contract, so as to enhance the competitiveness of the company.