中國環保政策-禁廢令對台灣相關傳統產業股價影響之研究

Abstract

台灣與中國貿易依存度高，工業生產原料與產品進出口頻繁，本研究目的為 探討中國的環保政策《禁止洋垃圾入境推進固體廢物進口管理制度改革實施方 案》(簡稱《禁廢令》)是否會使台灣相關傳統產業(造紙產業、塑膠產業、人纖產 業、電線產業)的股價呈現正向異常報酬，及其是否會使不同產業之間的異常報 酬具有顯著差異；另外，禁廢令是否會使台灣造紙產業與其他非造紙產業之間的 異常報酬具有顯著差異，以及台灣造紙產業與塑膠產業之間的異常報酬是否也有 顯著差異。從而歸納出受到中國禁廢令影響最大的為何種台灣產業。

本研究採用事件日研究法探討樣本產業的相關異常報酬，並且使用變異數分 析法探討不同產業之間的異常報酬是否具有顯著差異，探討其影響是否符合感染 理論與效率市場假說，並闡述從眾理論在證券市場當中對投資者的投資行為之影 響。經過實證結果發現：

1. 中國禁廢令會使台灣相關傳統產業的股價呈現正向異常報酬。 2. 中國禁廢令會使台灣相關傳統產業之間的異常報酬有顯著差異。 3. 中國禁廢令會使台灣造紙產業與其他非造紙產業之間的異常報酬有 顯著差異。 4. 中國禁廢令會使台灣造紙產業與塑膠產業之間的異常報酬有顯著差 異。

The purpose of this study is to explore whether China's environmental policy, "Prohibition of the Foreign Solid Waste Importation", will generate positive abnormal returns on the share prices of Taiwan's related traditional industries (paper industry, plastic industry, fiber industry, wire industry) and whether it will make a significant difference in the abnormal returns between different industries. Whether there is abnormal return difference between paper industry and other non-paper industry, or between paper industry and the plastic industry.

This study uses event study method to observe the abnormal returns, and use analysis of variance to observe whether abnormal returns between different industries have significant differences. We discuss whether herding theory, contagion theory and efficient markets hypothesis are supported. By empirical results, the research found:

1. The Solid Waste policy will generate positive abnormal returns on the share prices of Taiwan's related traditional industries 2. The Solid Waste policy will make a significant difference in the abnormal returns between Taiwan's different industries 3. The Solid Waste policy will make a significant difference in the abnormal returns between Taiwan's paper industry and non-paper industries. 4. The Solid Waste policy will make a significant difference in the abnormal returns between Taiwan's paper industry and plastic industry.