宏觀調控政策對中國大陸房地產板塊上市公司股價之影響

Abstract

房地產經濟的健康發展關乎中國大陸國民經濟的穩定發展，因此政府多年來利用各種政策對房地產行業進行宏觀調控。本研究藉由蒐集中國大陸宏觀調控政策之資料與政策發佈前後房地產板塊上市公司股價報酬率之變化，探究宏觀調控政策對房地產板塊上市公司股價之影響。 本研究發現，房地產板塊股票於緊縮性政策事件日有顯著之負異常報酬，而於寬鬆性政策事件日有顯著之正異常報酬，且以ANOVA分析結果顯示，於緊縮性政策事件日，公司註冊地點在北京市、上海市或深圳市的房地產板塊股票較公司地點在其他城市的房地產板塊股票所產生的負異常報酬更爲顯著。於緊縮性政策事件日，房地產行業的房地產板塊股票較其他行業的房地產板塊股票所產生的負異常報酬更爲顯著；於寬鬆性政策事件日，房地產行業的房地產板塊股票較其他行業的房地產板塊股票所產生的的正異常報酬更爲顯著。政府宏觀調控政策對房地產板塊上市公司衝擊較大，並據此分別對政策制定者、投資者與上市公司提出建議。

The healthy development of real estate economy is essential to national economy development for Mainland China. Therefore, various macro-control policies have been applied in real estate industry for decades. Impacts of macro-control policies on listed companies in real estate sector are discussed in this paper in aspects of macro-control policies event and abnormal returns of listed companies during policy announcement.

It is found that significant negative abnormal returns are generated from real estate sector listed companies during tightening policies announcement while positive abnormal returns are generated from real estate sector listed companies during easing policies announcement. ANOVA and Student's t-test show that companies registered in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen generate more significant negative abnormal returns during tightening policies announcement compared to ones listed in other cities, companies in real estate industry generate more significant positive abnormal returns during easing policies announcement compared to ones in other related industries, and companies in real estate industry generate more significant negative abnormal returns during tightening policies announcement compared to ones in other related industries. Marco-control policies impact the listed companies in real estate sector fundamentally, according to which suggestions are proposed for policy-maker, investors and listed companies.