台灣推廣「太陽光電發電」之策略研究

Abstract

摘 要 台灣在2011年日本「311核災」、2015年法國「聯合國氣候峰會」及2016年「總統與國會大選」後，「非核家園」與「綠能減碳」將是我們能源發展重要指標。但台灣「核四封存」且「核電退役」後,每年核能發電約400億度「電力缺口」該如何? 2015年台灣再度召開「全國能源會議」，「能源安全」「再生能源」「節能減碳」等議題，環保團體、專家學者及各界代表提出諸多建議,急需我們凝聚全民共識、整合專業意見,提出前瞻可行方案。 台灣電力系統為獨立電網，不能與鄰國相互支援，國家「電力安全」遭遇挑戰。且當2018年核電廠陸續退役後,「電力調度」「備載不足」等問題,將危及國家能源安全。核四電廠原可解決台灣「北部缺電」問題，並可避免「南電北送」所產生之風險。但日本311事件爆發後，核電之發展前途未明，煤礦與天然氣等石化燃料，卻因「溫室氣體減量及管理法」施行而限縮使用。當前世界面臨「全球暖化」「氣候異常」等議題，發展「再生能源」為國際減碳共識。台灣因水力、生質能及陸域發電已漸飽和，未來再生能源增加之來源僅限於「太陽光電」及「離岸風力」。而台灣在「太陽光電產業」，有成熟且完整之產業供應鏈；但裝置容量卻落後世界各國。其中推動上之諸多政策與法令問題 ,嚴重影響推展績效與進度。

本研究透過文獻探討與專家訪談，經由AHP層級分析法，將訪談調查問卷分析統計，尋求台灣推廣「太陽光電發電」之重要影響要素，依序為「投資成本」「差別費率」「建管鬆綁」「農業釋出」等，並提出具體之建議方案，同時以太陽光電發電特性，分別以「能源安全」「節能減碳」「差別式躉購費率」及「再生能源替代核能」為主題，作分析驗證與評估，以提供相關單位決策之參考。希望台灣能全面推廣「太陽光電發電」政策,以減少輸電損耗、落實節能減碳、促進產業發展。同時得以確保能源安全、達成環保減碳目標；更可促進產業穩健領先,讓台灣成為全球太陽光電發電之「模範櫥窗」。

ABSTRACT After Japan’s "311 nuclear disaster" in 2011, French "UN climate summit" in 2015 and Taiwan’s presidential and parliamentary elections in 2016, "nuclear-free homeland" and "green energy and carbon reduction" have become profound indicators of Taiwan’s energy development. But after the archive of Taiwan's fourth nuclear power plant in construction and decommissioning of the currently operating nuclear power plants, ther will be a yearly power shortage of about 400 billion kWh. National Energy Conference was reconvened in 2015, "energy security", "renewable energy", "carbon reduction" and other issues urgently require environmental groups, experts, scholars and representatives from various sectors to put forward suggestions, with intergrated national consensus and professional advices to form a viable plan going forward. Taiwan power grid is an independent system and is not supported from grid of neighboring countries, electrical safety is an issue. When in 2018 the the operating nuclear power plants will be decommissioned in succession, "Load Dispatching" "inadequate spare capacity," and other issues, would challenge the national security. Fourth nuclear power plant could solve the problem of power shortage in northern Taiwan, and avoid the risks to transmitting power from South to North. But after Japan’s 311 nuclear disaster, the future of nuclear power development is unclear, The use of coal, natural gas and other fossil fuels, is restricted because of the "greenhouse gas reduction and management Act". Facing the world today are issues of "global warming", "climate anomalies", the development of "renewable energy" is the new international focus to reduce carbon emissions. Taiwan due to its hydro, biomass energy and land power generation are saturated, the future renewable energy sources are the "photovoltaic" and "offshore wind power". Taiwan’s PV industry has developed a mature and complete supply chain; but the PV installation lags behind many under developed countries. The country’s policy and legal issues have seriously hindered the performance and progress in this arena. Through literature review and interviews with experts, via AHP level analysis and statistical analysis of the questionnaire, This study is seeking to outline the important factors affecting the "Solar power generation", in order, the "investment costs" "tarrif rate differences" "construction and management” " agriculture policy ", and put forward specific proposals based on characteristics of photovoltaic power generation, in respect to" energy security "" wholesale purchase rate "" carbon reduction "and" alternative renewable energy in place of nuclear energy "etc. With verification and evaluation, we hope to convience decision makers to promote Taiwan‘s photovoltaic power generation. With a comprehensive "Solar power generation" policy Taiwan can reduce transmission losses, implement carbon reduction, and promote industrial development while ensuring energy security, environmental protection and achieving carbon reduction goals; This policy will promote healthy industry and make Taiwan a global solar power generation model.