臨床試驗消息公佈對生技產業股價與成交量影響之研究－以台灣新藥公司為例

Abstract

台灣生技公司已投入新藥研發多年，經過長期努力與政策的推升，生技產業已經累積高度研發能量與相當的產業規模，許多新藥從研發到如今已進入臨床三期，並陸續傳出令人振奮的成果，在資金大舉挹注下，新藥類股股價也大幅飆升。以上櫃新藥股基亞(3176)為例，因於2014年7月底公告其肝癌新藥PI-88三期臨床期中分析數據未達預期療效，隨即連日打入跌停，從過去股價最高價486元，股價一度剩下120元，市值蒸發近三分之二，幾乎所有生技類股都受其拖累，金管會因而訂制「基亞條款」，企業在發布重訊時，應基於事實並提出客觀、明確證據，充分告知可能面臨風險，或須承擔的義務與成本，內容不應偏頗且不得有誇耀性或類似廣告等宣傳文字，並避免輸入艱深的專業術語，便於投資人瞭解訊息內容及做出正確的投資判斷。本研究探討新藥公司之新藥臨床進度消息與股價、交易量之關係，了解臨床消息之公佈是否確實會影響其股價、交易量，以台灣上市、上櫃及興櫃公司為研究樣本，利用實證分析的方式，利用傳統t值檢定對樣本進行資料分析。研究結果顯示，新藥公司發佈臨床試驗訊息前已有顯著的異常報酬、週轉顯著大於零的情形；新藥公司於臨床試驗訊息公告前其累積異常報酬、週轉已有顯著異於零之情形；新藥公司於臨床試驗訊息公告後其累積異常報酬、週轉均有顯著大於零之情形。

Biotech companies in Taiwan have been developing new drugs for many years. After many years of heavy investment and support from Taiwan, the biotech industry has already quite a bit of scale. Clinical trials of many new drugs are in their Phase III, continuously making progress. Stock price of this kind of companies has been raised a lot. Take MEDIGEN for example, they released the result which was not matched to the expectation about Phase III interim analysis of new drug PI-88 at Independent Commission in July, 2014. The stock price of MEDIGEN decreased from $486 to $120. Not only the stock price of MEDIGEN decreased dramatically but also created a similar disaster for most biotech companies. Due to this uncommon incident, Financial Supervisory Commission has made a “MEDIGEN clause”, which limits the timing and content of information release about research and development progress strictly. In the future, any biotech companies need to release the information based on truth and with associated risk that investors may face. The content couldn’t use any technical terms or buzzword, on the other hand, it should help investors to make their investment proper decision easier. This study focuses on the relationship between the information release of clinical trial progress of biotech companies, their stock prices and trading volumes in Taiwan the stock market. The empirical result suggest that abnormal returns and trading volumes of new drug companies are included in the time event study.