美國油氣田資產速評方法之研究

Abstract

介紹各種石油業上游探勘活動相關一些的入門知識，這些知識不單是在美國國內用得上，有些在國際的油氣資產的投資上也用得上。並藉著在學校學習的財務管理與營利模式的知識與技術，希望能建立一套簡易又快速的評估方法與流程，作為未來投資美國油氣資產時，提供資產評估及決策參考使用，當然許多的方法也可以適用在國際油氣資產的投資。

為了能夠快速估計油氣的蘊藏量，不同階段應該使用不同的估計方法，以便得到合理的資料，才能進行更進一步的決策。探勘階段的使用類比法或是體積法符合迅速估計的要求，適合快速決策的依據。進入開發與生產階段則應該使用物質平衡法或是遞降曲線分析法，以便精確地估計剩餘的蘊藏量及資產的價值。

估算蘊藏量或是資源量之後，再使用折現現金流（discounted cash flow）的方法來估算油氣資產或是探勘標的物的現值，同時也估算可能的內部收益率，還有估計還本的時間，作為投資決策的參考。這些估算的方法許多都能夠寫成程式或軟體，並可以藉由資訊科技累積相關的經驗，提高油氣資產的獲利率。

Describe some introductory knowledge of the various activities related to exploration, the upstream of oil industry, that not only is the lingua franca in the United States, but also is of international investment in the oil and gas properties. And by the knowledge and technology of financial management and profit model, establish simple and fast evaluation methods and processes, for investing in US oil and gas assets, to be the reference of evaluation and decision-making as the future. Many methods can also be applied in the international oil and gas investment assets.

To be able to quickly estimate oil and gas reserves, different methods should be used at different stages of oil and gas production. In order to get reasonable information to carry out further decisions. Volumetric and analogy methods are the rapid estimation met the requirements for fast decisions. Into the development and production phase, you should use the material balance method or decline curve analysis to accurately estimate the value of the remaining reserves and assets.

After estimating reserves or resources, using DCF (discounted cash flow) to estimate the present value of the reserves or resources, but also to estimate the possible internal rate of return, as well as the estimated payback time, as a reference for investment decisions. Many of these methods of estimation can be written programs or software, and can accumulate relevant experience by information technology to improve the profitability of oil and gas assets.