熱手現象的意涵：謬誤抑或是事實

Abstract

大部分球迷和球員都相信熱手現象存在於球場中，但此議題一直以來都被 視為一種源自於代表性偏誤的認知謬誤。本研究以NBA官方的籃球數據為研究資料，並以Gilovich等人於1985的經典文獻為主要依據，藉由不同的定義和資料，進一步探究在統計的標準下是否有顯著的證據支持熱手現象。除此之外，利用官方的光學追蹤數據(SportVU)，檢測球員在手氣不同的時期，攻擊型態、進攻距離和防守效率方面是否有顯著的不同。並採用模擬的方式，去分析球員的數據是否有顯著異於穩定模型的情況。最後，為了要了解團隊內球員的能力分布，以及此球隊是否有出現馬太效應或是均衡球隊的情況，所以本研究進一步採用視覺化的方式去進行。 在統計結論上，本研究並沒有對此現象的存在性提出顯著的證據，但透過和經典文獻的結論比較，確實多了一些資訊傾向此現象存在。而後續分析也都讓我們對於球員在應對冷熱時期的變化以及團隊整體表現有更深一層的理解。

Basketball players and fans tend to believe that a player’s chance of hitting a shot are greater following a hit than following a miss on the previous shot. However, the belief in hot hand has been seen as a fallacy due to Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) which attributes to the belief in law of small numbers. Based on their analysis, we used different data and analyses from games aspect. Moreover, we detected player’s type of offensive and defensive by using the NBA SportVU database. In simulation, we compared the data between the player and result from consistent model. The last part, in order to see the player’s ability in a team, we used visualization to investigate whether the team is a one-man team or based on teamwork. Although we didn’t provide strong evidence in the existence of hot hand, we do obtain more information tend to support it. On top of that we learn more about how player change their offensive type to cope with different situation. Our findings are also valuable in game strategy.